20260410-招银国际-Quick_commerce_to_drive_loss_reduction_prioritizing_AI_business_development_7页_957kb

Alibaba (BABA US) Summary

Core Content

This report provides a detailed analysis of Alibaba Group Holding's financial performance and outlook for the fiscal year ending March 2026 (4QFY26) and beyond. It outlines the company's strategic focus on Quick Commerce (QC) and AI business development, and evaluates the financial impact of these initiatives.

Main Points

• Revenue Forecast for 4QFY26:
  Alibaba is expected to report revenue growth of 2% YoY, reaching RMB241.2bn, which is 3% lower than the Bloomberg consensus. The adjustment is due to changes in the accounting treatment for customer management revenue (CMR).

• Adjusted EBITA for 4QFY26:
  The adjusted EBITA is forecasted at RMB4.7bn, a 86% YoY decline, primarily due to increased investment in QC and AI-related initiatives.

• QC Business Performance:
  The QC business is expected to narrow its loss to RMB18bn in 4QFY26, down from previous quarters. Total losses for QC are projected to reduce to RMB44bn in FY27E and RMB22bn in FY28E, driven by order mix optimization, user subsidies, and improved operating efficiency.

• Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG) Growth:
  CIG is anticipated to grow 40% YoY in 4QFY26, up from 36% in 3QFY26, due to strong demand for AI-related products and digitalization. Adjusted EBITA for CIG is expected at RMB3.8bn, with a 9.0% margin, flat QoQ.

• All Others Segment:
  The segment's EBITA loss is expected to double QoQ to RMB20bn in 4QFY26, mainly due to increased investment in Qwen's promotional activities, especially during the Spring Festival. The loss is forecasted to rise to RMB60bn in FY27E.

• Earnings Summary:

  • Revenue is projected to grow at a slower pace in FY26E compared to previous years, with a 2.5% YoY growth.
  • Adjusted net profit is expected to decline significantly in FY26E, reaching RMB75,997mn, a 51.9% YoY drop.
  • Adjusted net profit is forecasted to rise in FY27E and FY28E, reaching RMB98,400mn and RMB153,087mn, respectively.

• Valuation and Target Price:
  The SOTP-based target price has been revised to US$206.1 per ADS, up from US$203.7, reflecting improved visibility into QC loss reduction and stronger-than-expected digitalization demand. This corresponds to a 22.8x FY28E PE (non-GAAP).

• Investment Outlook:
  The report maintains a BUY rating, highlighting Alibaba as a key beneficiary of the Al theme. The target price is 61.4% above the current price of US$127.68.

Key Financial Information

• Revenue (RMB mn):

  • FY24A: 941,168
  • FY25A: 996,347
  • FY26E: 1,021,507
  • FY27E: 1,128,492
  • FY28E: 1,253,780

• Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn):

  • FY24A: 158,359
  • FY25A: 157,940
  • FY26E: 75,997
  • FY27E: 98,400
  • FY28E: 153,087

• EPS (Adjusted) (RMB):

  • FY24A: 62.77
  • FY25A: 67.24
  • FY26E: 32.77
  • FY27E: 42.85
  • FY28E: 67.34

• Consensus EPS (RMB):

  • FY26E: 33.72
  • FY27E: 52.68
  • FY28E: 69.68

• Target Price (US$):

  • US$206.10 (from US$203.70)

• Forecast Revision:

  • Revenue for FY26-28E has been lowered by 1% due to CMR and All Others segment adjustments.
  • Non-GAAP net profit forecast for FY26E has been lowered by 9% to account for greater-than-expected investment impacts.

Risks

• Margin Pressure: Increased investment in QC and AI may have a more significant impact on margins than anticipated.
• Consumption Recovery: The recovery of consumer spending may take longer than expected, affecting overall performance.

Shareholding and Performance

• Mkt Cap (US$ mn): 306,543.7

• Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn): 1,415.1

• 52w High/Low (US$): 189.34 / 103.83

• Total Issued Shares (mn): 2,400.9

• Shareholding Structure:

  • JPMorgan: 2.3%
  • Parufam Limited: 0.8%

• Share Performance (12-mth):

  • 1-mth: -6.7%
  • 3-mth: -15.4%
  • 6-mth: -19.7%

Analyst Certification and Disclosures

• The analyst certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect personal opinions and that no compensation is tied to the report's content.
• The analyst confirms no trading in the stock covered within 30 days prior to the report's release and no trading for 3 business days after.
• The report is not individually tailored and is provided for informational purposes only.
• No liability is accepted for any reliance on the report's information.
• The report may be subject to change and is not a recommendation for investment.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
• HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
• SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
• NOT RATED: Stock is not rated by CMBIGM.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

Legal and Distribution Information

• UK Recipients: The report is provided only to persons under Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Financial Promotion Order.
• US Recipients: CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the US. The report is intended for major US institutional investors only.
• Singapore Recipients: The report is distributed by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited (CMBISG), an exempt financial adviser in Singapore. It may not be provided to non-accredited investors without prior consent.

Summary of Valuation Components

Total Valuation (USD mn): 206.1
Total Value per Share: US$206.10
PE (non-GAAP) for FY28E: 22.8x

Conclusion

Alibaba continues to focus on Quick Commerce and AI business development, which are expected to drive loss reduction and revenue growth in the long term. Despite short-term margin pressures, the report maintains a BUY rating, citing positive outlook and strategic value. The revised target price reflects improved forecasts and a more optimistic outlook for the company's future performance.