2025-05-22-Bernstein-FDJ联合公司（FDJU）_FDJU尼斯会议-部署强化战略_但该集团面临监管和财政压力_11页_427kb

FDJ United Conference Feedback and Analysis

FDJ United, represented by Marc Willaume (Dir. RI), presented at the Nice 2025 conference, outlining a strategy to maintain stable 2025 revenue despite regulatory tensions, particularly a new gaming tax set to impact EBITDA by approximately 90M EUR annually from July 1st. The company aims to mitigate the effects from regulatory changes in the Netherlands and UK through cost-cutting measures.

Key Highlights:

• Financial Outlook:

  • Target share price: 37.50 EUR (14% upside)
  • Current close: 32.96 EUR
  • Expected revenue: Stable vs 2024, despite regulatory pressure (but impact from new regulations may later)
  • EBITDA guidance impacted by new tax, but Bernstein estimates savings opportunities via internalization and Kindred synergies, with initial cost reductions expected mainly from synergy efforts (Kindred) starting 2026.

• Analyst Comments & Recommendations:

  • Bernstein: Maintains "Outperform" recommendation. Acknowledges a "difficult start" to the year, limiting flexibility, but notes stronger-than-anticipated sales earlier than feared. Suggests FDJU is fairly valued. Hopes for clarity on 2025-2028 guidance, reduction measures, and strategy, especially regarding lottery vs online/casino, potentially via M&A. Recommends monitoring at the CMD meeting on June 24th.
  • Reinvestment: Expects 6-9% revenue growth (lower than Banijay's expectations), with improving EBITDA margins (except for the French gaming tax).

• Valuation:

  • BPA Adjusted (2024): 2.64 EUR
  • PER Adjusted (2024): 12.5x
  • Dividend Yield (2025): 6.9%
  • Valuation Methodology: Average DCF (assuming 25-year license renewal) and peer comparison.

• Risks & Challenges:

  • Downside: Regulatory changes (tax increases or payout rules), dependency on physical POS (75% of sales), competitive pressure (especially online sports betting).
  • Upside: Faster-than-anticipated mitigation measures or easing of regulatory pressure.

In conclusion, while facing significant regulatory headwinds requiring careful management, FDJU's prospects are supported by potential mitigation measures and an attractive dividend yield.