20150319-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_40页_2mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of stock performance and company results for various markets and firms, with a focus on financial metrics, analyst recommendations, and future outlook. It covers China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, highlighting key financial indicators and market dynamics.

Main Points by Market

China

China Merchants Bank (3968 HK):
- 2014 results were in line with expectations, with NIM (Net Interest Margin) improving by 19 basis points (bps) in Q4 2014.
- The bank is expected to benefit from ongoing loosening measures and has a higher SME loans mix.
- Maintained a BUY recommendation with a new target price of HK$21.50, implying a +16.2% upside.
- Financial highlights:
  - Net interest income grew by 13.2% yoy in 2014.
  - Net profit increased by 8.1% yoy.
  - NPL ratio rose slightly to 1.11% in Q4 2014, but NPL formation was slower than expected.
  - Maintained a strong cost-to-income ratio and a high coverage ratio.

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK):
- 2014 results were affected by MTM (Mark-to-Market) fuel hedging losses.
- Downgraded to SELL with a target price of HK$15.00.
Hong Kong and China Gas (3 HK):
- Net profit increased by 3.7% yoy in 2014.
- Maintained HOLD with a target price of HK$18.60.

Indonesia

Poultry Sector:
- Feed price increases are a catalyst for growth.
- Recommended OVERWEIGHT with top picks CPIN (Target: Rp4,700, 29.8% upside) and MAIN (Target: Rp2,800, 44.0% upside).

Malaysia

Berjaya Sports Toto (BST MK):
- Core earnings were in line, but FY16 earnings are expected to contract due to GST cost absorption.
- Maintained HOLD with a target price of RM3.37.
Top Glove (TOPG MK):
- Margins expanded for the second consecutive quarter due to the strengthening US dollar and lower raw material costs.
- Recommended BUY with a target price of RM5.88.

Singapore

Shipyard Sector:
- Bracing for a dry spell, indicating potential challenges in the sector.

Thailand

Oil & Gas Sector:
- Earnings are expected to recover qoq in Q1 2015 due to improved refining margins.
- IRPC is highlighted as a good bet for a 2015 earnings upgrade by consensus.

Key Indices Performance (as of 19 March 2015)

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	18076.2	1.3	2.5	0.3	1.4
S&P 500	2099.5	1.2	2.9	(0.0)	2.0
FTSE 100	6945.2	1.6	3.3	0.7	5.8
AS30	5808.0	(0.1)	0.8	(1.1)	7.8
CSI 300	3846.1	2.4	9.1	9.2	8.8
FSSTI	3361.8	(0.2)	(0.5)	(2.2)	(0.1)
HSCEI	11982.0	1.2	4.9	(0.7)	(0.0)
HSI	24120.1	0.9	1.7	(2.9)	2.2
JCI	5413.2	(0.5)	(0.1)	0.4	3.6
KLCI	1797.6	0.5	1.1	(0.6)	2.1
Nikkei 225	19544.5	0.6	4.4	7.0	12.0
SET	1531.5	1.2	(0.8)	(4.3)	2.3
TWSE	9653.4	1.2	1.4	1.3	3.7
BDI	571	0.5	1.1	12.2	(27.0)
CPO (RM/mt)	2187	(0.4)	(2.7)	(4.7)	(4.8)
Nymex Crude	45	(0.3)	(5.4)	(13.0)	(16.4)

Top Picks

Company	Ticker	Current Price	Target Price	Upside
Sunac China	1918 HK	6.54	9.29	42.0%
ICBC	1398 HK	5.65	6.80	20.4%
Bank Negara	BBNI LJ	6,950.00	7,500.00	7.9%
Genling Msia	GENM MK	4.15	4.47	7.7%
DBS	DBS SP	19.90	23.55	18.3%
Pacific	PACRA SP	0.60	1.00	66.7%
Krong Thai	KTB TB	23.00	29.00	26.1%
Sino Thai Engr	STEC TB	21.20	30.25	42.7%

SELL:

UMWH with a target price of HK$10.00, implying a -6.9% downside.

Key Assumptions

Indicator	2014	2015F	2016F
GDP Growth (%)	-	-	-
US	2.4	3.2	3.2
Euro Zone	0.9	1.4	1.4
Japan	1.5	2.0	2.0
Singapore	3.2	3.3	3.3
Malaysia	5.9	5.2	5.2
Thailand	1.5	3.9	3.9
Indonesia	5.2	5.8	5.8
Hong Kong	3.5	3.7	3.7
China	7.2	7.0	7.0
Brent (US$/bbl)	99.45	65	70
CPO (US$/mt)	722	765	788
BDI	1,101	1,300	1,400

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Start Date	End Date
China Property Analyst Presentation	Singapore & Kuala Lumpur	17 Mar	19 Mar
Indofood Sukses Makmur Roadshow	Singapore	27 Mar	27 Mar
Sunway Berhad Luncheon	Kuala Lumpur	31 Mar	31 Mar
Singamas Container Holdings Roadshow	Singapore	31 Mar	31 Mar
Singamas Container Holdings Roadshow	Kuala Lumpur	1 Apr	1 Apr
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Roadshow	Taipei	30 Mar	31 Mar
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Roadshow	Singapore	2 Apr	2 Apr
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Roadshow	Kuala Lumpur	3 Apr	3 Apr

Summary of Key Financials and Outlook

China Merchants Bank is expected to benefit from ongoing monetary easing, with a focus on SME loans and strong fee growth.
China Telecom experienced a decline in 4Q14 net profit due to higher operating costs and PHS network asset write-offs, but the results were better than expected due to stable broadband ARPU.
Top Glove reported margin expansion in 2QFY15, driven by the US dollar and lower raw material costs.
Indonesia's Poultry Sector is expected to benefit from feed price increases, with CPIN and MAIN as top picks.
Thailand's Oil & Gas Sector is expected to recover qoq in Q1 2015 due to improved refining margins.
Key Indices show mixed performance with some positive and negative trends across different regions.
Valuation remains a key factor, with a focus on P/E, P/B, and DCF models to determine fair value.