20230201-招银国际-4Q22E_loss_to_narrow__FY23_sales_to_outperform_4页_840kb

报告摘要

NIO Inc. (NIO US) Company Update Summary

Core Content Overview

NIO Inc. is a leading Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer with a focus on premium models and a strategic push towards mass-market brands. The report provides an analysis of NIO's financial performance and outlook for the upcoming quarters and fiscal years, with a particular emphasis on its path to profitability.

Key Financial Highlights

4Q22E Performance

Sales Volume: Increased by 27% QoQ to about 40,000 units, slightly below prior guidance of 43,000–48,000 units.
Revenue: Projected to rise 22% QoQ, driven by higher sales volume, though affected by lower average selling price (ASP) due to the ET5's high sales proportion (nearly 30%).
Gross Margin: Expected to remain largely flat QoQ.
Net Loss: Projected to narrow slightly to RMB 3.8 billion.

FY23E Outlook

Sales Volume: Revised down to 200,000 units from 230,000 units due to increased competition and potential weaker-than-expected 1Q23E sales.
Sales Drivers: ES7/EC7 and ET5/ET5 wagon are expected to drive sales.
Gross Margin: Projected to widen by 2 ppts YoY to 15.7%.
R&D and SG&A Expenses: Estimated to be 15% and 18% of revenue, respectively.
Net Loss: Forecasted to narrow YoY to RMB 11.3 billion, significantly lower than the consensus.

FY24E Projections

Profitability: NIO may still be unprofitable in FY24E due to heavy investments in R&D and charging infrastructure.
Cash Flow: Expected to turn positive in FY24E.
Cash Reserves: Current cash reserves are sufficient to support operations for at least FY24E without new financing.

Valuation and Investment Rating

Rating: BUY (Maintained)
Target Price: US$ 23.00 (down from US$ 25.00)
Valuation Basis: Based on 3.5x of revised FY23E revenue estimates.
Key Risks: Lower sales volume or margins than expected, and sector de-rating.

Financial Summary

Revenue

FY20A–FY24E: RMB 16,258 million (FY20A), RMB 36,136 million (FY21A), RMB 49,089 million (FY22E), RMB 76,245 million (FY23E), RMB 92,222 million (FY24E).
YoY Growth: 107.8% (FY20A), 122.3% (FY21A), 35.8% (FY22E), 55.3% (FY23E), 21.0% (FY24E).

Net Profit

FY20A–FY24E: RMB -5,611 million (FY20A), RMB -10,572 million (FY21A), RMB -12,514 million (FY22E), RMB -11,320 million (FY23E), RMB -9,599 million (FY24E).

Key Ratios

Gross Margin: Expected to rise to 15.7% in FY23E.
Net Profit Margin: Projected to improve to -14.8% in FY23E and -10.4% in FY24E.
ROE: Projected to increase to 72.6% in FY24E.
Current Ratio: Expected to decrease to 0.9 in FY24E.
Inventory Turnover Days: Remains around 26 days.
Receivable Turnover Days: Stays around 26 days.
Payable Turnover Days: Drops to 135 days in FY24E.

Stock Data

Market Cap: US$ 20,543 million
Average 3 Months Turnover: US$ 630 million
52-Week High/Low: US$ 26.41 / US$ 8.38
Total Issued Shares: 1,692 million

Shareholding Structure

Li Bin: 10.3%
Tencent entities: 9.7%
Others: 80.0%

Share Performance

1-Month: 30.4% (Absolute), 17.3% (Relative)
3-Month: 33.9% (Absolute), -8.3% (Relative)
6-Month: -39.2% (Absolute), -48.6% (Relative)

Analysts

SHI Ji, CFA: (852) 3761 8728 | shiji@cmbi.com.hk
DOU Wenjing, CFA: (852) 6939 4751 | douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk

CMBIGM Ratings

BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

Disclosures & Legal Information

The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
The information is based on publicly available data and may not be accurate or complete.
There are risks involved in trading securities, and actual outcomes may differ from projections.
The report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced or distributed without written consent.

Conclusion

NIO Inc. is expected to see improved performance in FY23E with a narrower net loss and a potential for positive cash flow in FY24E. The company's focus on premium models and the development of mass-market brands is a strategic move to achieve profitability. Despite challenges, the current valuation and performance metrics suggest a BUY rating with a revised target price of US$ 23.00. Investors should be aware of the risks and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.

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