战略与国际研究中心-The-Uncertain-Trends-and-Metrics-of-Terrorism-in-2016_353页_14mb

Summary of "The Uncertain Trends in the Metrics of Terrorism"

Core Content

This report by Anthony H. Cordesman and Max Markusen analyzes global and regional trends in terrorism, focusing on the challenges in measuring these trends accurately. It highlights the limitations of current data sources and the complexities in distinguishing terrorism from other forms of violence such as insurgency and internal conflict. The report also provides detailed statistics on the number, location, casualties, tactics, and targets of terrorist attacks from 1970 to 2015, with a particular emphasis on the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Al Qaida, and other major terrorist groups.

Main Challenges in Terrorism Metrics

• Lack of Transparency and Leadership: The National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) has failed to maintain an unclassified data base on terrorism, leading to a lack of official transparency and hindering the analysis of counterterrorism effectiveness.
• Reliance on Media Reporting: The START database, which is a primary source for many estimates, relies heavily on media reports, resulting in significant gaps and uncertainties in data, especially in regions where governments restrict accurate reporting.
• Ambiguous Definitions: Many sources do not clearly define "terrorism" and often conflate it with insurgency and internal conflict, leading to inconsistent reporting and analysis.
• Inadequate Methodology: Most sources do not explain their methodology or account for uncertainty in their estimates.
• Underreporting of State-Sponsored Activities: State-sponsored terrorism and covert actions are not consistently reported, and their impacts are often overlooked.
• Limited Data on Extremism: There is a lack of reliable data on the spread of extremism, foreign volunteers, and international flows of terrorist activity.
• Inconsistent Data Reporting: Data on casualties, incident counts, and geographic impact are often inconsistent and incomplete, especially in areas with limited media coverage.

Key Global Trends in Terrorist Attacks (1970-2015)

• The number of global terrorist attacks increased significantly over the years, with notable spikes in certain regions.
• The majority of attacks and casualties were concentrated in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, with the Middle East and North Africa accounting for over two-thirds of all terrorist deaths since January 2015.
• 2015 saw a decline in the total number of attacks and deaths compared to 2014, largely due to reduced activity in Iraq, Pakistan, and Nigeria, despite an increase in some countries like Afghanistan, Syria, and Egypt.
• Terrorist attacks in 2015 totaled 11,774, causing 28,328 deaths, 35,320 injuries, and 12,189 kidnappings or hostage-taking incidents.
• ISIL was the most active group in terms of attacks and lethality, with a 39% increase in Syria and a 31% decrease in Iraq, while Boko Haram and the Taliban were also significant perpetrators.
• The average lethality of attacks was 2.3 people killed per attack, with suicide attacks being the most lethal, killing 6,712 people and wounding over 10,000.
• Explosives were the most commonly used tactic (52%), followed by armed assaults (23%) and unarmed assaults (83% nonlethal).
• Private citizens and property and police were the most frequent targets, accounting for 55% of all attacks.

Regional Trends in Terrorism

• Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Dominated the global terrorism landscape, with ISIL, Boko Haram, and the Taliban being key actors.
• South Asia: Hosted significant attacks, with Boko Haram and the Taliban being prominent.
• Central Asia: Showed a lower number of attacks, likely due to limited media coverage and underreporting.
• East Asia: Also had relatively low attack numbers, possibly due to similar reasons.
• Europe and the Americas: Experienced fewer attacks and casualties compared to other regions, but some notable incidents occurred.

Key Findings

• Underreporting of Violence: Many attacks, particularly those by local ethnic or sectarian groups, are not reported as terrorism unless a group claims responsibility.
• Impact of Islamic Extremism: The global impact of Islamic extremism is significant, but it is often overshadowed by other forms of violence and underreported due to political and media biases.
• Need for Better Data: The report emphasizes the need for more comprehensive and transparent data to better understand the nature, scope, and impact of terrorism and to assess the effectiveness of counterterrorism measures.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for improved data collection, transparency, and consistent definitions in the study of terrorism. It highlights the disproportionate impact of terrorism in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia and the challenges in accurately measuring the effects of terrorism due to the lack of reliable and comprehensive data sources.