战略与国际研究中心-Trends-in-Global-Terrorism-in-the-Middle-East_81页_284kb

Summary of "Global Terrorism and the Middle East" by Anthony H. Cordesman

Core Content

This report by Anthony H. Cordesman analyzes the evolving threat of terrorism and asymmetric warfare to the United States, focusing on the distinction between traditional terrorism and state-sponsored attacks. It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the threat landscape, including the role of both state and non-state actors, and the challenges in predicting and responding to potential attacks.

Main Points

1. Nature of the Threat

• The threat to the U.S. homeland from terrorism includes a wide range of actors and methods, from individual extremists to state-sponsored asymmetric warfare.
• Attacks can involve conventional explosives, chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons.
• The U.S. government has increasingly recognized the need to prepare for a variety of asymmetric threats, especially those involving WMDs.

2. Terrorism vs. Asymmetric Warfare

• While terrorism is often associated with non-state actors, state actors may also engage in asymmetric warfare through proxies or covert operations.
• There is a conceptual gap between the definitions of "terrorism" and "asymmetric warfare" used by different U.S. agencies.
• Asymmetric warfare is not inherently illegal or illegitimate, and the U.S. should consider it as a legitimate threat.

3. Threat Prioritization and Uncertainty

• The U.S. faces significant uncertainty in assessing the likelihood and severity of future attacks.
• There is no clear pattern in the number or severity of attacks, making it difficult to predict the nature of future threats.
• Some analysts believe the threat is increasing, while others argue it remains low and exaggerated.

4. Government Response and Policy Development

• The U.S. has implemented several directives and laws to enhance preparedness, including PDD-39, PDD-62, and PDD-63.
• The Defense Against Weapons of Mass Destruction Act (1997) established the Nunn-Lugar-Domenici Domestic Preparedness Program.
• Federal spending on counterterrorism and homeland defense increased by at least 43% between FY1998 and FY2001.

5. Definitions and Terminology

• Different federal agencies use varying definitions of terrorism:
  • State Department: "Premeditated, politically motivated violence against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents."
  • FBI: Broader definition including social objectives and a wider range of violent acts.
  • DOD: Uses "counterterrorism" for offensive measures and "antiterrorism" for defensive ones.
  • FEMA: Defines terrorism in terms of criminal law violations.
  • GAO: Uses "combat terrorism" to encompass all federal programs.
  • Rand Corporation: Views terrorism as an act of coercion through violence or threat.

6. Terrorist Motives and Methods

• Terrorist motives have evolved from political to religious, ethnic, and ideological.
• Some groups, like al-Qaida, aim to cause mass casualties and may not seek political concessions.
• The trend is toward more lethal attacks, with fewer political demands or claims of responsibility.

7. Regional Patterns of Attacks

• The Middle East, once seen as the center of global terrorism, has seen a decline in attacks since the early 1990s.
• Latin America has experienced a significant increase in attacks, while Western Europe has seen a decline.
• The U.S. has not been a major target of large-scale attacks, with only one incident (the 1993 World Trade Center bombing) approaching "superterrorism."

Key Information

Table One Summary

• Total International Terrorist Attacks by Region (1989–1999):
  • Africa: 6 (1993), 52 (1999)
  • Asia: 37 (1993), 72 (1999)
  • Eurasia: 5 (1993), 35 (1999)
  • Latin America: 97 (1993), 116 (1999)
  • Middle East: 100 (1993), 25 (1999)
  • Western Europe: 185 (1993), 85 (1999)
  • North America: 1 (1993), 2 (1999)

Casualty Trends

• Casualty levels do not correlate with the number of incidents.
• The U.S. has experienced relatively low casualties from terrorist attacks, with the 1993 World Trade Center bombing being the most significant.
• CBRN attacks, if successful, could result in massive casualties (10,000–100,000) and have severe economic, psychological, and political consequences.

Challenges in Threat Assessment

• There is a lack of consistent and comprehensive net assessments of both domestic and international threats.
• The U.S. government often reacts to emotional or generic definitions of terrorism rather than conducting thorough risk assessments.
• The rapid evolution of technology, such as biological and information warfare, increases the potential lethality of attacks.

Conclusion

• The U.S. must prepare for a wide range of asymmetric threats, including those from state actors and their proxies.
• A more flexible and comprehensive approach to threat assessment is necessary to account for the uncertainty and complexity of future attacks.
• The report underscores the importance of balancing preparedness with the recognition of the unpredictable nature of terrorism and its evolution.