20131008-巴黎银行证券-The_Bank_for_a_changing_world_24页_2mb

BNP Paribas Research Summary (8 October 2013)

Core Content Overview

This document contains equity research and market analysis from BNP Paribas, focusing on various sectors and companies in Asia, including Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Japan, and others. It includes ratings, target prices, financial forecasts, and insights into market trends and company-specific developments.

Key Companies and Ratings

Thailand: Airports of Thailand (AOT)

• Rating: Downgraded to HOLD from Buy
• Target Price (TP): THB210.00 (up 5.0% from previous TP of THB200.00)
• Current Price (CP): THB197.00
• Upside/Downside: +6.6%
• 2013E: P/E 25.6x, P/B 3.2x, Yield 2.5%
• Reason: The upside potential is limited due to a revised discount rate, despite increased forecasts for passenger service charges (PSC) and tourist arrivals. The Thai government's plan to cut import taxes on luxury goods is expected to boost tourism but may not significantly impact AOT's TP.

Hong Kong/China: Esprit Holdings (330 HK)

• Rating: Initiated with REDUCE
• Target Price (TP): HKD8.50
• Current Price (CP): HKD12.50
• Upside/Downside: -32.0%
• 2014E: P/E 463.9x, P/B 1.5x, Yield 0.0%
• Reason: The company is in a difficult position due to weak profitability and uncertainty around recovery. It is expected to continue losses in FY6/14. The TP is based on 1.0x FY6/14E PB, reflecting the lack of confidence in near-term recovery.

Hong Kong/China: Shenzhen International (2313 HK)

• Rating: Initiated with BUY
• Target Price (TP): HKD31.60
• Current Price (CP): HKD27.10
• Upside/Downside: +16.6%
• 2013E: P/E 16.2x, P/B 2.9x, Yield 2.5%
• Reason: The company benefits from strong manufacturing integration, new capacity, diversification into ASEAN, and improved margins. The TP is based on a DCF model with a 15.9x 2014PE assumption.

Sector Research Highlights

Thailand: Transportation (Airlines & Airports)

• Outlook: Positive
• AAV and THAI: Maintained BUY ratings due to strong LCC growth and increasing tourist arrivals.
• AOT: Downgraded to HOLD due to limited upside potential.
• Key Drivers: Rise in tourist arrivals, government initiatives to boost tourism, and potential for increased spending by foreign visitors.
• Notes: The "zero dollar tour" policy for Chinese tourists may have a short-term negative impact but is expected to be positive in the long run.

Greater China Apparel

• Trend: The rise of fast fashion brands like Zara, H&M, Uniqlo, and Gap is reshaping the apparel industry.
• Impact: Traditional apparel OEMs/ODMs benefit from higher supply chain standards, better cost competitiveness, and stronger relationships with clients.
• Challenges: Traditional brands and department stores are struggling with falling sales and competition from fast fashion and online retailers.
• Top Picks: Infosys, Tech Mahindra, and Persistent in India IT Services.

Hong Kong Property

• Weekend Sales: Developers accelerated the sale of high-end properties, with Sino Land and SHKP launching new projects.
• Sino Land: Sold 29 units of The Graces at HKD0.6b, offering a 6% discount.
• SHKP: Re-launched The Cullinan with a 14% discount and cash rebates, expected to attract pent-up demand and mainland buyers.

Other Research Highlights

Asia Oil & Gas/Chemicals

• Crude Oil Prices: Brent crude fell 0.4% w-w to USD108.8/bbl; WTI was flat at USD103.1/bbl.
• Refining Margins: Increased by USD0.3/bbl to USD4.1/bbl.
• Petrochemicals: Ethylene-naphtha spread rose 8.6% to USD490/tonne; propylene-naphtha spread increased 2.2% to USD540/tonne.
• Top Performers: China BlueChem (3983 HK) +8.1%; LG Chem (051910 KS) -6.1%

Japan Internet

• Focus: On gaming and digital content.
• Key Events:
  • Nintendo announced "Pokemon XY" on 12 October.
  • Colopl launched a new TVCM for "Quiz RPG" and reached 8 million downloads.
  • GREE offered voluntary retirement to 200 employees.
  • GungHo released an update for "Divine Gate".
  • TecmoKoei announced "Mogitate Beautiful Girls Baseball".
  • TOSE revised its guidance upwards.

Events and Roadshows

Company Roadshows (By Location)

• Hong Kong/China:
  • Emperor International Holdings (163 HK) NDR on 25 Oct 13
  • Industry Expert Roadshow for Formosa Petrochemical Corp (6505 TT) on 6 Nov 13 and 14-15 Nov 13
  • Ping An (2318 HK) and Ascendas India Trust (AIT SP) on 10-11, 25 Oct 13 and 28 Oct 13
• Singapore:
  • Industry Expert Roadshow for Ping An (2318 HK) and AIT SP on 10-11, 25 Oct 13 and 28 Oct 13
• Europe:
  • Makalot (1477 TT) on 28 Oct - 1 Nov 13
  • Chunghwa Telecom (2412 TT) on 4-8 Nov 13
  • Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) on 13-15 Nov 13
  • Lion Air on 15, 18-19 Nov 13
  • SMIC (981 HK) on 25-29 Nov
  • Advanced Semiconductor Engineering ASE (2311 TT) on Week of 2 Dec
• Japan:
  • Sanrio (8136 JP) on 18-22 Nov 13
  • Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) on 18-22 Nov 13
• Asia Pacific Industrials Conference: 21-22 Nov 13

BNP Paribas Recommendations

Summary of Key Financial Metrics

AOT (Thailand)

• 2013E: P/E 25.6x, P/B 3.2x, Yield 2.5%
• 2014E: P/E 22.0x, P/B 2.9x, Yield 2.3%
• 2015E: P/E 17.1x, P/B 2.6x, Yield 2.9%

Esprit Holdings (Hong Kong)

• 2013A: Revenue HKD25,902m, Net Profit (HKD) -811m
• 2014E: Revenue HKD24,619m, Net Profit HKD52m
• 2015E: Revenue HKD25,989m, Net Profit HKD500m
• 2016E: Revenue HKD28,222m, Net Profit HKD822m

Shenzhen International (Hong Kong)

• 2012A: Revenue RMB8,938m, Net Profit RMB1,620m
• 2013E: Revenue RMB9,968m, Net Profit RMB1,829m
• 2014E: Revenue RMB11,688m, Net Profit RMB2,191m
• 2015E: Revenue RMB13,706m, Net Profit RMB2,539m

Conclusion

The research highlights the evolving dynamics in the Asian markets, with a focus on the impact of fast fashion on the apparel industry, the performance of the property sector in Hong Kong, and the changing landscape in Thailand's transportation and airports. It also outlines key events and roadshows that could influence market sentiment. Overall, the report suggests a mix of buy, reduce, and hold recommendations, reflecting both opportunities and risks across the region.