2025-06-13-Jefferies-4月澳大利亚石油统计数据_8页_349kb

April Australian Petroleum Stats Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the Australian petroleum market for April, highlighting changes in fuel volumes and market dynamics, as well as valuation methodologies and investment recommendations for two major companies in the sector: Ampol Limited (ALD AU) and Viva Energy Group (VEA AU).

Key Market Trends

• Overall Fuel Volumes: Increased by +0.4% YoY, improving from -1.2% in March.
• Easter Timing: Likely had a modest positive impact on retail volumes and a modest drag on commercial volumes.
• Crude Price Dynamics: Recent decline in crude prices supports retail margins, but Middle East tensions have led to an increase in crude prices.
• Premium Penetration: Remains elevated, reaching 34.4% in April, up from 34.0% in March.

Fuel Volume Breakdown

Total Fuel Volumes

• YoY Change: +0.4%
• Month-over-Month Change: Improved from -1.2% in March
• Ex-Jet Volumes: Declined by -0.5% in April

Diesel Volumes

• YoY Change: -1.0%
• Month-over-Month Change: Deteriorated slightly from -0.4% in March
• Retail Diesel Volumes: Increased by +0.5%, up from -1.8% in March
• Commercial Diesel Volumes: Declined by -1.7%, improving from +0.3% in March

Jet Volumes

• YoY Change: +5.8%
• Month-over-Month Change: Improved from +4.7% in March
• Domestic Jet Volumes: Grew modestly by +0.6%
• International Jet Volumes: Increased by +10.1% YoY

Gasoline Volumes

• YoY Change: +1.7%
• Month-over-Month Change: Improved from -4.5% in March
• Easter Impact: Likely a modest tailwind

Company Analysis

Ampol Limited (ALD AU)

• Stock Price: AUD25.46
• Rating: BUY
• Valuation Methodology: DCF analysis
• Assumptions:
  • WACC: 8.3%
  • Beta: 0.63x
  • Tax rate: 2.5%
  • Risk-free rate: 4.5%
  • Equity risk premium: 5.0%
• Risks:
  • Weaker-than-expected retail margins
  • Weaker-than-expected refining margins
  • Risk that retail volumes do not recover under intense competition

Viva Energy Group (VEA AU)

• Stock Price: AUD2.00
• Rating: HOLD
• Valuation Methodology: DCF analysis
• Assumptions:
  • WACC: 8.2%
  • Beta: 0.63x
  • Tax rate: 2.0%
  • Risk-free rate: 4.5%
  • Equity risk premium: 5.0%
• Risks:
  • Same as Ampol Limited: retail margins, refining margins, and retail volume recovery under competition

Investment Recommendations

• Buy: Expected total return of 15% or more within 12 months.
• Hold: Expected total return of plus or minus 15% within 12 months.
• Underperform: Expected total return of minus 10% or less within 12 months.
• NR: Investment rating and price target are temporarily suspended.
• CS: Coverage suspended.
• NC: Not covered.
• Restricted: Certain communication restrictions apply.
• Monitor: No financial projections or investment opinions provided.

Valuation Methodology

Jefferies uses a variety of methodologies to assign ratings, including:

• Market Capitalization
• Maturity
• Growth/Value
• Volatility
• Expected Total Return over the next 12 months

Price targets are based on:

• Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
• EBITDA, EPS, Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow
• EV/EBITDA, P/E, P/CF, P/FCF
• Premium/Discount to average group EV/EBITDA or P/E
• Sum of the parts, Net Asset Value, Dividend Returns, Return on Equity (ROE)

Investment Themes and Risk Management

• Franchise Picks: Include only Buy rated stocks, based on fundamental analysis, analyst conviction, favorable risk/reward ratio, and investment themes.
• Stop Loss Mechanism:
  • Stocks with 120-day volatility in the bottom quartile of S&P stocks have a 15% stop loss.
  • Other stocks have a 20% stop loss.
• Risks:
  • Market Risk: Prices and values can rise or fall due to economic, financial, and political factors.
  • Currency Risk: Exchange rate fluctuations may adversely affect returns for non-US denominated assets.
  • Conflict of Interest: Jefferies may have business relationships with companies covered in the report, which could affect objectivity.
  • Regulatory Restrictions: Reports may be subject to different regulations in various jurisdictions.

Key Figures and Data

• Figure 1: Total petroleum product volumes (ML)
• Figure 3: Premium and E10 penetration vs fuel price
• Figure 5: Premium and E10 penetration vs fuel price
• Figure 7: Gasoline volumes (ML)
• Figure 8: Diesel volumes (ML)
• Figure 9: Aviation turbine volume (ML)
• Figure 10: Marine fuel oil volume (ML)

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

• Jefferies may seek compensation from companies covered in its research.
• The report is not tailored to individual investors and should be considered only one factor in investment decisions.
• No investment advice is provided, and no suitability analysis is conducted.
• No fiduciary duty is assumed by Jefferies in relation to the distribution of these reports.
• Conflicts of interest may exist, and regulatory requirements vary by jurisdiction.
• Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties.
• Third-party content is used with permission and no warranties are given.

Analyst Information

• Michael Simotas and Naveed Fazal Bawa are Equity Analysts at Jefferies (Australia) Pty Ltd.
• They are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.
• The report is prepared by Jefferies personnel associated with multiple entities, including:
  • Jefferies LLC (US)
  • Jefferies Securities Inc. (Canada)
  • Jefferies International Limited (UK)
  • Jefferies GmbH (Germany)
  • Jefferies Hong Kong Limited (HK)
  • Jefferies Singapore Limited (SG)
  • Jefferies (Japan) Limited (JP)
  • Jefferies India Private Limited (IN)
  • Jefferies (Australia) Pty Ltd (AU)

Distribution and Jurisdictional Notes

• The report is not intended for retail investors in Dubai, India, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan.
• In Australia, it is directed at wholesale clients under the Corporations Act 2001.
• In Canada, it is for professional or institutional investors.
• In the UK and EEA, it is for persons with suitable professional experience.
• In the PRC, the report is not an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities.
• No legal review has been conducted by any Canadian securities commission.
• Reproduction of third-party content is prohibited without prior written consent.

Summary of Key Points

• April saw improved overall fuel volumes, driven by gasoline and jet demand.
• Premium penetration remains elevated, near record levels.
• Retail margins are supported by lower crude prices, while Middle East tensions are pushing crude prices higher.
• Diesel volumes declined YoY, with retail volumes showing modest growth and commercial volumes showing slight decline.
• Jet volumes saw significant YoY growth, with international demand being a key driver.
• Valuation methodologies include DCF, EBITDA, EPS, P/E, and others.
• Investment recommendations are based on expected total return and risk/reward analysis.
• Disclosure requirements vary by jurisdiction, and regulatory compliance is emphasized.