全球银行业大转型-英-48页_2mb

The Great Banking Transition

Executive Summary

• Banking completed 2022–23 with the highest returns in a decade, driven by soaring interest rates boosting net interest margins and profits. ROE reached 12% in 2022 and 13% in 2023.
• Profitability declined in some of the world’s largest banks between 2022 and 2023, with 58% of institutions expected to have ROE below their cost of capital in 2023.
• The Great Banking Transition—the shift of financial activity from traditional banks to nontraditional players—is at a tipping point. Technology may drive more change and cut costs, but also creates new risks and competitive pressure.
• Mc Kinsey recommends five priorities: exploiting technology and AI; flexing or unbundling the balance sheet; scaling or exiting transaction businesses; leveling up distribution; and adapting to changing risks.

The Great Banking Transition Overview

• The core pillars of banking—balance sheet, transactions, and distribution—have been shifting away from banks to nonbanks due to technological innovation, regulation, and changing client needs.
• Between 2015 and 2022, more than 70% of the increases in the world’s total portfolio of assets, liabilities, and stock moved off traditional banks' balance sheets.
• About 50% of the world’s best-performing banks are now found in the “Indo-Crescent” region (from Singapore to India, Dubai, and East Africa).
• Heavily capitalized universal banks (e.g., global systemically important banks) have had lower economic value than specialized players specializing in transactions or distribution.

Balance Sheet Shifts

• Balance sheet: Bank assets are shifting to nonbank players like insurers, pensions, private capital, and digital assets. China and Latin America lag behind North America and Europe in this transfer.
• Global trends: The U.S. has the highest rate (75%) of fund transfers off bank balance sheets, while Europe is at 55%.
• Consequences: Traditional capital-intensive banks face higher costs and deposit shortages when unable to refinance maturing liabilities.

Transaction Shifting

• Transaction volumes are moving to nontraditional players like payment specialists and capital market infrastructure providers.
• Digital payments processed by specialists grew 50% between 2015 and 2022.
• The market share of specialized players is gaining ground in payment processing and underwriting high-yield debt.

Distribution Evolving

• Hybrid and digital models are evolving, along with embedded finance (integrating financial services into nonfinancial platforms).
• Price discovery platforms (e.g., online mortgage and loan comparison sites) have significant market penetration in developed countries.

Valuation and Performance Divergence

• Capital-light players (e.g., payments providers, asset managers) are achieving premium ROEs, while traditional universal banks trade below book value.
• The price-to-book ratio (0.9 in 2022) remains flat since the 2008 crisis and far below broader market valuations.

Five Priorities for Banks

1. Capture AI and advanced analytics to boost productivity, efficiency, and customer interactions.
2. Flex or unbundle the balance sheet to reduce capital dependency and source risk to other investors.
3. Scale or exit transaction businesses through partnerships and strategic M&A.
4. Level up distribution via embedded finance, platforms, and digital advisory.
5. Elevate risk management as a core competency and competitive advantage.

Key Takeaways

• Bal..
• ce between traditional and nontraditional players will determine future bank relevance.
• Technology is a major enabler of structural change, providing new efficiencies and competitive threats.
• Banking’s future depends on reinventing business models that create greater value for capital and stakeholders.