2025-05-15-Jefferies-布鲁克代尔高级生活（BKD）_开始展现生活在老年海啸浪潮中的意义_12页_433kb

Brookdale Senior Living is the largest US owner and operator of senior living communities, with a Buy rating and $8.00 price target from Jefferies, based on a 18% upside from the current $6.78. Q1 performance shows strong growth: revenue of $813.9MM slightly below street expectations but up 4% year-over-year, driven by rate increases and a 140 bps occupancy gain to 79.3%. Adjusted EBITDA hit $124.139MM, +9.4% above street estimates, due to expense management and higher occupancy. The company raised its FY25 EBITDA guidance to $440-$450MM, indicating better-than-expected results, and expects positive adjusted free cash flow in $30-$50MM, supported by ongoing demand acceleration from aging baby boomers. The core thesis on aging population dynamics fuels performance improvements, with occupancy trends exceeding seasonal norms and guiding to sustained revenue and EBITDA growth. Risks include labor inflation, potential slowing occupancy growth, and rising leverage, while valuation uses an EV/EBITDA multiple aligned with historical averages. The company aims to enhance operations and asset value through portfolio rationalization, and generate shareholder value amid demographic tailwinds.