20220427-IMF-Malaysia_2022_Article_IV_Consultation-Press_Release_Staff_Report_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_Malaysia_135页_9mb

报告摘要

Summary of 2022 Article IV Consultation with Malaysia

Core Content

The 2022 Article IV Consultation with Malaysia, conducted by the IMF, concluded on April 6, 2022, following discussions from January 24 to February 9, 2022. The consultation aimed to assess the economic recovery and policy framework in the context of the ongoing pandemic and global economic conditions.

Main Economic Developments

Economic Recovery: Malaysia's economy showed a gradual recovery, supported by a strong vaccine rollout and multi-pronged pandemic response. However, the recovery was uneven, with significant sectoral and regional disparities.
GDP Growth: Real GDP growth in 2021 was limited to about 3%, while the output gap remained sizable.
Inflation: Inflation was kept in check at around 2½% in 2021, despite supply chain disruptions.
Export-Oriented Sectors: The manufacturing sector remained operational during lockdowns, contributing to growth, whereas the agricultural sector faced labor shortages due to reduced migrant worker inflows.
Contact-Intensive Sectors: Tourism and other contact-intensive industries were severely impacted by the pandemic.

Policy Response

Fiscal Policy: The federal government spent RM39 billion (2½% of GDP) in 2021 on pandemic-related measures, more than double the initial budget. This led to a deficit of about 6½% of GDP, exceeding the 5½% target in the 2021 Budget. Fiscal consolidation is expected to resume once the recovery is stable, with a focus on revenue-based measures and fiscal sustainability.
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Malaysia (BNM) maintained an accommodative stance, keeping the overnight policy rate at a record low of 1¾% through early 2022. The exchange rate was emphasized as a key shock absorber, with room for further easing if needed.
Financial Sector: The financial sector is considered resilient, with targeted support measures being unwound as the recovery progresses. Continued efforts to strengthen personal bankruptcy processes are recommended to support orderly deleveraging.

Key Economic Indicators (2017–2027)

Indicators	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Real GDP (percent change)	5.8	4.8	4.4	-5.6	3.1	5.7	5.7	5.0	4.5	4.5	4.0
Federal government overall balance (percent of GDP)	-2.9	-3.7	-3.4	-6.2	-6.4	-6.1	-4.6	-4.4	-4.3	-4.2	-4.2
General government debt (percent of GDP)	54.4	55.6	57.1	67.8	69.0	70.6	69.9	69.9	69.8	69.6	69.5
CPI Inflation	3.7	1.0	0.7	-1.1	2.5	2.5	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0
Unemployment Rate	3.4	3.3	3.3	4.5	4.7	4.5	4.3	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.2

Main Economic Policy Recommendations

Fiscal Policy: Continue targeted fiscal support to bolster the recovery and protect vulnerable groups, with a focus on gradual fiscal consolidation once the recovery is entrenched.
Monetary Policy: Maintain an accommodative stance and ensure monetary policy remains data-driven. The exchange rate should continue to serve as a shock absorber.
Structural Reforms: Accelerate reforms to promote inclusive growth, address climate risks, and enhance external rebalancing. This includes strengthening governance, anti-corruption measures, and the AML/CFT framework.
Financial Sector: Continue targeted financial support and improve the efficiency of debt resolution mechanisms.
Trade and Investment: Promote trade liberalization and integration into global value chains (GVCs) to drive growth and reduce external vulnerabilities.

Risks and Outlook

Economic Scarring: The pandemic may cause long-term economic scarring, potentially leading to permanent GDP losses and a drag on potential output.
Downside Risks: Risks include the ongoing pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and other global uncertainties.
Inflation: Expected to stabilize at around 2½% in the medium term.
Current Account: Projected to narrow gradually due to recovery in consumption and capital-related imports.
Growth Outlook: Solid growth is expected in the medium term, driven by pent-up domestic demand and strong external demand.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board welcomed Malaysia's recovery efforts and policy responses but emphasized the need for continued fiscal and structural reforms, as well as maintaining policy flexibility to address ongoing risks. The 12th Malaysia Plan is seen as a strategic framework for inclusive growth and fiscal governance, with a focus on productivity, innovation, and sustainability.

Key Documents

Press Release: Summarizes the views of the Executive Board on the consultation.
Staff Report: Provides detailed analysis of the economic situation and policy recommendations.
Executive Director Statement: Outlines the IMF's assessment and recommendations.
Informational Annex: Offers additional context and data for the consultation.

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