20171016-法国巴黎银行-BNP_Paribas_STEER_16页_781kb

BNP Paribas FX Strategy Summary (16 October 2017)

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the BNP Paribas STEER™ model's current trading signals and market analysis for various currency pairs. The STEER™ model is used to identify short-term value deviations and generate trading signals based on the model's analysis of market conditions.

Key Trading Signals

• GBPUSD: The STEER™ model indicates the pair is undervalued by 1.4 z-scores. A long position is recommended, targeting 1.3487.
• EURPLN: The pair has declined over the past week without a clear fundamental justification. A long signal has been initiated, targeting 4.2754.
• USDCAD: A short position is recommended, targeting 1.2363.
• EURNOK: A short position is recommended, targeting 9.2502.
• EURSEK: A short position was closed on 12-Oct-17 at 9.5750, with a return of -0.53%.
• USDTRY: A short position was closed on 12-Oct-17 at 3.6516, with a return of -0.44%.
• USDMXN: A short position was closed on 11-Oct-17 at 18.8639, with a return of -0.40%.

G10 Currency Analysis

Emerging Markets (EM) Analysis

Latin America (Latam) Analysis

Key Insights

• GBPUSD: Undervalued by 1.4 z-scores, suggesting potential for further gains.
• EURPLN: Declined unjustifiably based on fundamentals, leading to a long signal.
• CAD and NOK: Both appear undervalued, prompting short positions.
• EM Currencies: Most are in line with STEER™ values, except EURPLN which is undervalued.
• Latam Currencies: USDMXN is overvalued, while others are in line or slightly undervalued.

Driving Factors

• Political uncertainty has impacted GBPUSD.
• CAD undervaluation corresponds with a reduction in long positions.
• EURPLN's decline is not supported by short-term fundamentals.
• Other factors influencing the market include macroeconomic indicators, central bank policies, and market sentiment.

Contacts

FX Strategy & Cross-Asset Strategist

• Michael Sneyd, CFA: London, Tel: 44 20 7595 1307, Email: michael.sneyd@uk.bnpparibas.com
• Natalie Rickard: London, Tel: 44 20 7595 8270, Email: natalie.rickard@uk.bnpparibas.com

Emerging Markets FX & IR Strategy

• Wike Groenenberg: London, Tel: 44 20 7595 8746, Email: wike.groenenberg@uk.bnpparibas.com
• Marcelo Carvalho: Sao Paulo, Tel: 55 11 3841 3418, Email: marcelo.carvalho@br.bnpparibas.com
• Mirza Baig: Singapore, Tel: 65 6210 3262, Email: mirza.s.baig@asia.bnpparibas.com
• Gabriel Gersztein: Sao Paulo, Tel: 55 11 3841 3421, Email: gabriel.gersztein@br.bnpparibas.com

Legal and Disclaimer Notes

• This document is a marketing communication and not investment research.
• It is not intended for retail investors and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• BNP Paribas may engage in transactions inconsistent with the views expressed.
• The information is based on public sources and is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.
• No assurance is given that any returns or results will be achieved.
• This document may contain back-tested performance data, which is for illustrative purposes only.
• It does not constitute a prospectus or public offering and is provided on a confidential basis.

US Disclosures

• Options: Complex instruments with high risk, suitable only for sophisticated investors.
• ETFs: May involve tracking error, currency, and geopolitical risks.
• Confidentiality: The information is provided confidentially and may not be shared without consent.
• No Official Confirmation: Trade information is preliminary and not an official transaction confirmation.