2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_International_Fuel_Tax_Assessment_An_Application_to_Chile_37页_1mb

Summary of "International Fuel Tax Assessment: An Application to Chile"

Core Content

This paper by Ian W.H. Parry and Jon Strand presents a method for estimating the optimal fuel taxes for gasoline and diesel in Chile, based on a general approach that combines local data with extrapolations from U.S. studies. The goal is to determine the economically efficient level of taxation that accounts for the external costs of vehicle use, such as pollution, congestion, accidents, and road damage. The paper emphasizes that while fuel taxes are common in many countries, their levels are often not aligned with the true external costs, and policymakers lack clear guidance on this matter.

Main Points

• Externalities of Motor Vehicles: Motor vehicles generate a wide range of externalities, including local and global pollution, traffic congestion, accidents, and road damage. These externalities are not always reflected in current fuel tax rates.

• Corrective Taxes: The paper develops a framework to estimate corrective fuel taxes, which aim to internalize these externalities. The approach is based on a static, homogeneous agent model, where households optimize their utility given fuel prices, taxes, and external costs.

• Gasoline and Diesel Taxes:

  • The corrective gasoline tax for Chile is estimated at $2.35 per gallon (in 2006 dollars), which is 60% higher than the current tax rate.
  • The corrective diesel tax is estimated at $2.09 per gallon, which is more than five times the current rate, but lower than the gasoline tax relative to OECD standards.

• Key Factors in Tax Calculations:

  • Accident externalities are particularly significant in Chile, especially due to the high incidence of pedestrian fatalities.
  • Congestion and road damage are also major contributors to the external costs.
  • Fuel economy and travel behavior are important in determining the effectiveness of tax changes.

• Uncertainty in Estimates:

  • The most significant source of uncertainty is the valuation of health risks.
  • Other parameters, such as emission rates and behavioral responses, have relatively minor impacts on the tax estimates.

• Sensitivity Analysis:

  • The paper includes a sensitivity analysis showing that alternative assumptions about external costs and elasticities do not significantly alter the results.
  • The welfare gains from raising the fuel tax are substantial, with estimates of $33.2 million for gasoline and $150.2 million for diesel.

• Comparison with U.S. Studies:

  • The paper references earlier U.S. studies (e.g., Parry and Small, 2005) and adapts their methodology to Chile.
  • It notes that the valuation of travel time and health risk is lower in Chile than in the U.S., yet the corrective tax is still higher due to the greater accident externality.

• Limitations and Caveats:

  • The analysis does not consider alternative policy instruments such as congestion pricing.
  • It does not explore the linkages between fuel taxes and the broader fiscal system.
  • The valuation of health risks is a major uncertainty, and there is debate over the appropriate value for Chile.

Key Information

Parameter Compilation (2006)

Corrective Tax Computations (2006 Dollars)

Additional Key Estimates

• Pollution Damage:

  • $0.03 per mile nationally, with $0.06 per mile for Santiago and $0.007 per mile for the rest of the country.
  • Two-thirds of the cost is attributed to mileage, one-third to fuel use.

• Global Pollution (CO₂):

  • Gasoline: 0.009 tons per gallon
  • Diesel: 0.010 tons per gallon
  • Damage Value (per ton CO₂):
    • Central: $21 (2007 dollars)
    • Low: $5
    • High: $65

• Congestion:

  • Marginal delay: 0.035 hours per auto mile in Santiago.
  • National average marginal delay: 0.022 hours per mile.
  • Preferred marginal congestion cost: $0.04 per mile.

• Accidents:

  • Car accident external cost: $0.06 per mile.
  • Truck accident external cost: $0.07 per mile.
  • Pedestrian fatalities account for about 75% of the total accident cost for cars.

• Elasticities:

  • Gasoline demand elasticity: -0.50 (split equally between fuel economy and mileage).
  • Mileage to fuel price elasticity: 0.50 for cars, 0.60 for trucks.
  • Fuel economy elasticity: 0.25 for cars, 0.20 for trucks.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that fuels are under-taxed in Chile, especially diesel, due to the high external costs associated with vehicle use. While the methodology is based on U.S. evidence, it is adapted to local conditions and assumptions. The analysis suggests that increasing fuel taxes to reflect these externalities could lead to significant welfare gains, and that the optimal tax levels are much higher than current rates. However, due to data limitations and the subjectivity of some assumptions, the estimates should be treated as ballpark figures that can be refined over time.