20131107-招商证券_香港_-A-share_Research_Highlights__CMS_Research_Center__13页_207kb

报告摘要

A-share Research Highlights Summary (CMS Research Center)

Core Content

This document contains research highlights from the China Merchants Securities (CMS) Research Center, dated November 2013. It includes analyses on regulatory developments in the interbank sector, the PBOC's monetary policy, and stock market evaluations for various sectors in Hong Kong.

Main Points

1. Interbank Business Regulation

The CBRC is expected to issue Decree No. 9 to further regulate interbank businesses.
The new regulations are likely to increase the provision requirement for better risk control and prohibit three-party agreements for buying back the sale of financial assets.
The market has been well prepared for the increase in provision requirements, thus the impact on banking share prices is expected to be limited.
The prohibition of three-party agreements may present some implementation challenges.
The market size of interbank businesses has significantly contracted, and the focus is on standardization rather than complete reduction.
The government's emphasis on economic growth stabilization suggests that non-standardized interbank businesses will not be reduced dramatically, but rather standardized to maintain market liquidity.
These regulations are expected to support the healthy development of the banking industry, improve risk control, and aid in business restructuring.

2. PBOC's Monetary Policy Outlook

The PBOC's monetary policy outlook for the Chinese economy is more optimistic than in the second quarter, but inflation is expected to rise.
The central bank is unlikely to loosen the overall money supply and will continue to regulate liquidity.
The monetary policy is expected to remain stable-to-tight in the fourth quarter.
The central bank has adopted a cautious approach due to limited maneuvering room, considering both domestic and external factors.
The balance of the standing lending facility (SLF) was RMB386 billion at the end of the third quarter, indicating a relatively tight liquidity stance.
The weighted average interest rate for loans to non-financial enterprises rose to 7.05% in September, signaling increased financing costs.
The job opening-to-application ratio improved in the third quarter, indicating a higher government tolerance for economic slowdown.

Key Information

3. Stock Market Performance (HK Indices)

HSI: Last price 23,036.94, change -2.01, % change -0.01
Finance: Last price 32,263.54, change -35.07, % change -0.11
Properties: Last price 29,697.33, change -100.1, % change -0.34
Utilities: Last price 49,461.54, change -146.1, % change -0.29
Commerce & Industry: Last price 13,428.02, change 30.87, % change 0.23
HSCEI: Last price 10,561.57, change -75.58, % change -0.71
HSCCI: Last price 4,510.55, change -1.42, % change -0.03
HKSPGEM: Last price 463.52, change 1.63, % change 0.35

4. Global and Asia-Pacific Indices

World Indices: FTSE 100, DAX 30, CAC 40, DJIA, S&P500, Nasdaq Composite, Nikkei 225
Asia-Pacific Indices: KOSPI, TWSE, STI, India BSE 30, S&P/ASX 200

5. Commodity Prices

Brent Oil: Last price 104.68, change -0.49, % change -0.47
Gold: Last price 1,317.5, change -0.38, % change -0.03
LME Aluminum: Last price 1,818.0, change -10.25, % change -0.56
LME Copper: Last price 7,161.0, change 12.00, % change 0.17
BDI: Last price 1,602.0, change 2.00, % change 0.13
API Coal: Last price 82.80, change 0.45, % change 0.55

6. Exchange Rates and Interest Rates

USD/RMB: 6.15, change 0.00, % change 0.00
USD/HKD: 7.75, change 0.00, % change 0.00
1-YR RMB NDF: 6.16, change 0.00, % change 0.00
EUR/USD: 1.35, change 0.31, % change 0.23
3-M Libor: 0.52, change 0.00, % change 0.00
3-M Shibor: 4.69, change 0.00, % change 0.00
10 YR US T-Note Yield: 2.64, change -0.03, % change -1.12

Stock Ratings and Performance

7. Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods

589 (Ports): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 5.77, Target Price HKD 5.30, Upside Potential -8%, EPS RMB 0.55, P/E 8.3
1880 (Belle): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 10.46, Target Price HKD 14.03, Upside Potential 34%, EPS RMB 0.55, P/E 15.0
1368 (Xstep): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 4.07, Target Price HKD 4.00, Upside Potential -2%, EPS RMB 0.27, P/E 12.0
2020 (Anta Sports): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 11.50, Target Price HKD 11.06, Upside Potential -4%, EPS RMB 0.49, P/E 18.8
1361 (361 Degrees): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 2.37, Target Price HKD 1.52, Upside Potential -36%, EPS RMB 0.22, P/E 8.8
1968 (Peak Sport): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 1.80, Target Price HKD 1.48, Upside Potential -18%, EPS RMB 0.16, P/E 9.0
2331 (Li Ning): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 6.84, Target Price HKD 5.20, Upside Potential -24%, EPS RMB -0.10, P/E 30.8
3818 (China Dongxiang): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 1.21, Target Price HKD 1.47, Upside Potential 21%, EPS RMB 0.04, P/E 26.0
953 (Meike): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 0.53, Target Price HKD 0.30, Upside Potential -43%, EPS RMB 0.04, P/E 11.7
1234 (China Lilang): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 4.94, Target Price HKD 5.25, Upside Potential 6%, EPS RMB 0.41, P/E 9.6

8. Metals & Mining

1818 (Zhaojin Mining): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 5.83, Target Price HKD 6.00, Upside Potential 3%, EPS RMB 0.43, P/E 10.8
2899 (Zijin Mining): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 1.79, Target Price HKD 1.69, Upside Potential -6%, EPS RMB 0.14, P/E 10.2
358 (Jiangxi Copper): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 14.68, Target Price HKD 15.20, Upside Potential 4%, EPS RMB 1.02, P/E 11.4
3993 (Cmoc): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 3.19, Target Price HKD 3.10, Upside Potential -3%, EPS RMB 0.19, P/E 13.1
2600 (Chalco): Rating Sell, Latest Price HKD 2.84, Target Price HKD 1.60, Upside Potential -44%, EPS RMB -0.28, P/E N.A.
1378 (R&F Properties): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 12.92, Target Price HKD 13.90, Upside Potential 8%, EPS HKD 2.15, P/E 6.0
2007 (Country Garden): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 5.44, Target Price HKD 4.68, Upside Potential -14%, EPS HKD 0.48, P/E 11.5
3333 (Evergrande): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 3.24, Target Price HKD 4.38, Upside Potential 35%, EPS HKD 0.84, P/E 3.8

9. Consumer Discretionary

1833 (Intime): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 9.07, Target Price HKD 10.50, Upside Potential 16%, EPS RMB 0.54, P/E 13.3
1700 (Springland): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 4.21, Target Price HKD 4.50, Upside Potential 7%, EPS RMB 0.29, P/E 11.5

10. Telecommunication

941 (China Mobile): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 81.25, Target Price HKD 78.00, Upside Potential -4%, EPS RMB 6.37, P/E 10.1
762 (China Unicom): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 11.96, Target Price HKD 14.08, Upside Potential 18%, EPS RMB 0.45, P/E 21.1
728 (China Telecom): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 3.99, Target Price HKD 4.67, Upside Potential 17%, EPS RMB 0.24, P/E 13.2

11. Information Technology

700 (Tencent): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 412.00, Target Price HKD 455.00, Upside Potential 10%, EPS RMB 8.58, P/E 38.1
3888 (Kingsoft): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 18.96, Target Price HKD 24.37, Upside Potential 29%, EPS RMB 0.50, P/E 30.1
1661 (Wisdom): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 3.25, Target Price HKD 2.90, Upside Potential -11%, EPS RMB 0.13, P/E 19.8
777 (Netdragon): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 17.56, Target Price HKD 26.27, Upside Potential 50%, EPS RMB 0.78, P/E 17.9
354 (Chinasoft): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 2.21, Target Price HKD 2.00, Upside Potential -10%, EPS RMB 0.10, P/E 17.5
268 (Kingdee): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 2.46, Target Price HKD 1.40, Upside Potential -43%, EPS RMB 0.02, P/E 97.6

12. Port and Shipping

144 (China Mer Hold): Rating Neutral, Latest Price HKD 27.50, Target Price HKD 26.43, Upside Potential -4%, EPS HKD 1.55, P/E 17.7
1199 (Cosco Pacific): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 11.38, Target Price HKD 12.58, Upside Potential 11%, EPS USD 0.26, P/E 5.7
368 (Sinotrans Ship): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 2.67, Target Price HKD 2.40, Upside Potential -10%, EPS USD 0.01, P/E 34.4
316 (Ooil): Rating Buy, Latest Price HKD 40.85, Target Price HKD 51.00, Upside Potential 25%, EPS USD 0.17, P/E 31.0
2866 (Cscl): Rating Neural, Latest Price HKD 1.99, Target Price HKD 1.82, Upside Potential -9%, EPS RMB -0.06, P/E N.A.

Conclusion

The research highlights emphasize the importance of regulatory measures in the interbank sector, the PBOC's cautious monetary policy stance, and the mixed performance of various stocks in the Hong Kong market. While new regulations may have some short-term negative impacts, they are expected to promote long-term stability and growth for the banking industry. The report also provides stock ratings and performance forecasts, indicating both opportunities and risks across different sectors.

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