2003-05-17-皮尤-Broadband_Adoption_at_Home_5页_234kb

PEW INTERNET PROJECT DATA MEMO: Adoption of Broadband to the Home

Core Content

The Pew Internet Project Data Memo from May 2003 discusses the rapid growth of home broadband adoption in the United States, highlighting both the positive trends and the potential for slowing growth. The report indicates that broadband adoption increased by 50% from March 2002 to March 2003, reaching 31% of home Internet users by the end of March 2003. This growth is attributed to the 13% of dial-up users who are considered "ripe" for migration to broadband, based on their long-term online experience (6+ years) and online behavior.

Despite this progress, the memo raises concerns that the growth rate may be moderating, as fewer experienced dial-up users express interest in upgrading to broadband. It also notes that many dial-up users are content with their current service, and only 38% of them express a desire to switch to broadband. However, for those in areas where broadband is unavailable, 61% show interest in upgrading, suggesting that availability is a key barrier.

Key Findings

1. Broadband Adoption Growth

• Broadband adoption increased by 50% in the past year.
• As of March 2003, 31% of home Internet users had a high-speed connection.
• This represents a five-fold increase in broadband users over the past three years.
• Approximately 30 million people (or 16% of all Americans) use broadband at home.

2. Interest in Broadband

• 71% of dial-up users say broadband is available in their area.
• 12% say they cannot get broadband.
• 17% are unsure about its availability.
• Among those who cannot get broadband, 61% express a desire for a faster connection, compared to 35% of experienced dial-up users who say they are not interested in an upgrade.

3. Experienced Dial-Up Users as Potential Broadband Migrants

• About 13% of dial-up users are interested in moving to broadband.
• These users are more active online, with behaviors similar to broadband users, such as information gathering and content creation.
• They are also more likely to be employed, have college degrees, and be older than current broadband users.

4. Online Behavior Differences

• Broadband users are more likely to stream audio/video content and download music.
• Experienced dial-up users who want broadband are twice as likely as other dial-up users to stream, but still less active than broadband users.
• They are as likely as broadband users to conduct job-related research online, indicating that work-related needs could be a significant driver for migration.

Technology Usage Trends

1. Cable Modem Dominance

• Cable modems remain the most popular method for home broadband, with 21 million users in March 2003, up from 13 million in March 2002.
• DSL users increased from 7 million to 9 million over the same period.
• Wireless and fixed satellite connections saw a doubling in subscribers, from 500,000 to 1.4 million.

2. Market Share Shift

• There was a slight shift from DSL to cable modems in terms of market share.
• The overall broadband market is expanding, with 10 million more users in the past year.

Conclusion

The memo suggests that while broadband adoption is growing rapidly, the pace is likely to slow as the most eager users have already migrated. The next wave of broadband users will be driven by experienced dial-up users whose online activities and work requirements align closely with those of broadband users. Cable modems continue to dominate the market, but DSL and wireless are also gaining traction. The availability of broadband remains a critical factor influencing adoption, with rural areas being disproportionately affected.