2025白银_新一代战略金属研究报告_25页_777kb

Summary of SILVER, THE NEXT GENERATION METAL (November 2025)

Core Content

Silver is identified as a "next generation metal" critical to the green energy transition and digital transformation. Its unique properties, such as high electrical and thermal conductivity and strong corrosion resistance, make it indispensable in key industries like solar photovoltaics, automotive and electric vehicles, and data centres and artificial intelligence. This report provides an analysis of silver's role in these sectors, including current demand, expected future growth, and the impact of government policy and technological advancements.

Main Points

1. Solar Photovoltaics

• Relevance of Silver Properties: Silver's high electrical conductivity, excellent thermal conductivity, and high corrosion resistance are essential for solar cells, enabling efficient energy conversion, heat dissipation, and long-term performance.
• Silver Loading and Demand: Silver demand in the PV sector has grown threefold over the past decade, despite a tenfold increase in PV capacity, due to technological improvements that reduce silver usage per cell.
• Future Demand: The IEA forecasts that solar PV will account for over 80% of global renewable power capacity growth by 2030, with a CAGR of 17% for solar capacity. However, the Silver Institute notes a potential decline in 2025 due to increased silver requirements in next-gen solar cells.
• Government Policy and Tech Advancements: Ambitious government targets (e.g., EU’s EUPowerEU plan, India’s 500GW goal) support PV growth, but recent U.S. subsidy cuts and trade tariffs may raise costs. Next-gen solar cells (TOPCon, SHJ) require more silver, but copper plating technologies are expected to reduce silver usage over time.

2. Automotive and Electric Vehicles

• Relevance of Silver Properties: Silver is used in automotive components for its electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and corrosion resistance, supporting power transmission, battery performance, and vehicle safety.
• Silver Loading and Demand: Silver demand in the automotive industry is driven by the increasing number of electronic components and ECUs, especially in BEVs. BEVs use 67–79% more silver than ICE vehicles.
• Future Demand: Global EV production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13% from 2025 to 2031, with EVs expected to overtake ICEs as the primary source of silver demand by 2027, accounting for 59% of the share by 2031.
• Government Policy and Tech Advancements: China maintains strong EV incentives, while the U.S. is reducing them. The growth of EVs is expected to continue due to long-term trends, even without substantial government support. The expansion of EV charging infrastructure also boosts silver demand.

3. Data Centres and Artificial Intelligence

• Relevance of Silver Properties: Silver is vital for data centres and AI systems due to its high electrical and thermal conductivity, supporting efficient computing and cooling.
• Silver Loading and Demand: The IT power capacity has grown 53x from 2000 to 2025, driving up demand for silver. AI's reliance on specialized hardware (GPUs, TPUs, NPUs) further increases silver demand.
• Future Demand: As AI and digitalisation expand, the demand for data centre infrastructure and associated silver usage is expected to grow significantly.
• Government Policy and Tech Advancements: Governments are prioritizing data centres as critical infrastructure, offering incentives and streamlining regulations. Technological developments in AI are expected to increase silver usage in the sector.

Key Information

• Global Silver Demand: Silver demand from the PV sector is 29% of total industrial demand, up from 11% in 2014.
• EV Growth: EV production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13% from 2025 to 2031, with Asia-Pacific leading the growth, driven primarily by China.
• Silver Consumption: BEVs consume significantly more silver than ICE vehicles, and EVs are forecast to become the largest contributor to silver demand by the automotive industry by 2031.
• Cost Trends: The global weighted average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV has dropped by 90% since 2010, making solar energy cost-competitive with fossil fuels.
• Technological Developments: Next-gen solar cells (TOPCon, SHJ) require more silver than traditional PERC cells, but copper plating and silver-coated copper powder offer potential alternatives.
• Charging Infrastructure: The growth of EV charging stations is a significant driver of silver demand, as they require high-conductivity and corrosion-resistant components.
• Recycling and Alternatives: Recycling of silver from PV modules is currently limited, and alternative materials like copper and aluminium are being explored but face efficiency and reliability challenges.

Conclusion

Silver is set to play a crucial role in the future of clean energy and digital transformation. Despite challenges such as increased protectionism and policy changes, its unique properties ensure continued demand in key sectors. Technological advancements and government support are key factors influencing silver usage in the coming years.