2007年-世界发展银行全球_Absolute_Poverty_Measures_for_the_Developing_World_1981-2004_24页_286kb

Summary of "Absolute Poverty Measures for the Developing World, 1981-2004"

Core Content

This paper presents new estimates of absolute poverty measures for the developing world from 1981 to 2004, based on nationally-representative household surveys from over 500 sources across 100 low- and middle-income countries. The findings highlight a general decline in the percentage of people living in absolute poverty, but uneven progress across regions.

Main Points

• Trend Decline in Poverty Incidence: A clear trend decline in the headcount index of absolute poverty is observed across the developing world, with a rate of approximately 0.8% points per year for both the $1 and $2 a day poverty lines.

• Uneven Regional Progress:

  • East Asia saw the most significant reduction in poverty.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) showed little or no sustained progress in reducing the number of poor, with rising poverty counts in some regions.
  • China played a dominant role in the overall decline in poverty, especially for the $1 a day line. Excluding China, the trend decline is roughly halved.

• Urban-Rural Poverty Line Differential:

  • The urban poverty line is typically 30% higher than the rural line due to higher cost-of-living (COL) in urban areas.
  • The World Bank's Poverty Assessments (PA) are used to estimate this differential, based on the Cost-of-Basic-Needs method.
  • This differential affects the overall poverty count, with urban poverty increasing in some regions while rural poverty declines.

• Poverty Trends by Region:

  • East Asia: Sharp decline in both the number and percentage of poor.
  • Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA): General rise in the number of poor but fall in the percentage.
  • Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC): Mixed trends, with rising urban poverty and falling rural poverty.
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Trend decline in the number of people under the $1 a day line, but rising numbers under the $2 a day line.
  • South Asia: Falling poverty percentages but stable or rising numbers of poor under the $1 a day line.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): Rising numbers of poor, but encouraging signs of a decline in the percentage of poor after 2000.

• Urbanization of Poverty:

  • The share of the poor living in urban areas increased over time, especially for the $1 a day line.
  • However, the rate of urbanization of poverty slowed after 2000, and in some regions, such as ECA, there was a ruralization of poverty due to economic transition favoring urban areas.

• Methodological Considerations:

  • Poverty is measured using per capita consumption from household surveys.
  • The international poverty line is based on 1993 PPP exchange rates, with two lines: $1 a day and $2 a day.
  • The use of national accounts (NAS) data is limited, as survey data are considered more accurate for measuring inequality and distribution.
  • There are limitations in the data, such as underreporting and non-market welfare dimensions, which may affect the accuracy of poverty estimates.

• Key Findings on Poverty Trends:

  • From 1981 to 2004, the number of people living under the $1 a day line declined by about 17 million per year.
  • If the trend continues, the global $1 a day poverty rate would still be above 16% in 2015.
  • For the $2 a day line, the number of poor actually increased over most of the period, with only brief declines in the mid-1990s.
  • The $2 a day poverty rate is expected to be about 40% in 2015, significantly higher than the target of 30%.

Key Information

• Data Sources: Over 500 household surveys from 100 countries, with a focus on consumption and income data.
• Poverty Lines:
  • $1 a day (approx. $1.08): Used for the developing world, based on 1993 PPP.
  • $2 a day (approx. $2.15): More representative of middle-income countries.
• Urban-Rural Decomposition:
  • The urban poverty line is generally 30% higher than the rural line.
  • This decomposition helps in understanding the distribution of poverty across urban and rural areas.
• Population Shifts:
  • The urban share of the poor increased from 19% in 1993 to 25% in 2002 for the $1 a day line.
  • This suggests a shift in poverty from rural to urban areas, though the rate of urbanization of poverty slowed after 2000.
• Regional Composition:
  • In 2002, South Asia and SSA had the highest urbanization of poverty.
  • East Asia had the lowest urban share of the poor, largely due to China's rapid poverty reduction.

Conclusion

The paper provides a comprehensive analysis of poverty trends in the developing world over the past two decades. While there is a general decline in poverty incidence, the number of poor has not decreased uniformly across regions. China has been a key driver of poverty reduction, and urbanization of poverty has been a notable trend. However, the urban-rural cost-of-living differential must be considered to accurately assess poverty changes. The results indicate that achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG1) of halving extreme poverty by 2015 remains a significant challenge, especially for the $2 a day line.