世界银行-肯尼亚经济更新_2025年5月（英）-2025_67页_6mb

Kenya's economy has moderate growth, facing constrained fiscal space due to high public debt. Recent developments include a narrowing current account deficit and improving external sector conditions. Fiscal consolidation targets were not met, leading to low revenue and increased expenditure pressures, which undermine fiscal stability (p.6).

The analysis applies a Commitment to Equity (CEQ) framework to assess how taxes, subsidies, and social spending redistribute income. Overall, Kenya's tax and transfer system reduces inequality (Gini index reduction of 4.6 points) but has a limited impact on poverty. The net impact of taxes and subsidies increases poverty by 2.7 percentage points (p.34). Most direct cash transfer programs are well-targeted to poorer households, but coverage and adequacy are insufficient (p.24).

Subsidies, particularly fuel and electricity subsidies, disproportionately benefit middle- and upper-income households (p.27). VAT reforms to improve targeting could generate fiscal space while minimizing negative impacts on vulnerable groups. Direct transfers are more cost-effective than subsidies in reducing poverty and inequality (p.37). Secondary education transfers have the greatest poverty-reducing impact, while PIT most effectively reduces inequality (p.36).

Key policy recommendations focus on reducing debt vulnerabilities, enhancing the efficiency and transparency of public spending, boosting domestic revenues, and improving the progressivity of the tax policy (pp.12-13). Strengthening social transfers and investing in quality education and health, especially in rural and Arid and Semi-arid Lands (ASAL) areas, is crucial for reducing poverty and inequality (p.37). Reforms in direct taxes (PIT), social insurance contributions (SIC), VAT exemptions, and subsidies can redistribute income more effectively and raise revenue (p.33).

Kenya's fiscal space is tight, limiting the government's ability to invest in critical areas like social protection and essential services. Climate change risks and geopolitical factors pose additional challenges to economic stability and poverty reduction (p.11).