2025-05-13-世界银行-斯里兰卡发展更新_2025年4月_保持正轨（英）_37页_2mb

报告摘要

Sri Lanka's economy continued to recover in 2024, with GDP growth surpassing expectations at 5% (y-o-y), driven by industry (11% growth) and tourism-related services. However, household incomes, employment, and welfare remain significantly below pre-crisis levels.

Inflation declined sharply to negative territory in 2024, reaching -4.2% (y-o-y) in February 2025. The Central Bank cut policy rates by 150 basis points in 2024, supporting declining lending rates.

Tax-to-GDP ratio increased to 12.4% in 2024 (from 9.9% in 2023), driven by higher VAT collections and excise duties.
The primary deficit narrowed to 6.8% of GDP, below expectations, supported by revenue improvements and prudent expenditure management.
Public debt-to-GDP ratio decreased to 102.4% (from 111.7% at end-2023), aided by currency appreciation and fiscal adjustments.

Bilateral debt restructuring for US$10 billion of official and Exim Bank loans is ongoing, with agreements finalized with Japan.
Domestic ISBs were largely exchanged with bondholders, though some holdouts persist.

Poverty remains elevated, with the rate estimated at 24.5% in 2024 (US$3.65 PPP). Fiscal measures (e.g., public sector wage increases) aim to boost consumption but face challenges from limited job opportunities and increased emigration.
Malnutrition rates have worsened, raising concerns about long-term human capital development.

Medium-term growth is projected at 3.1% (2025-2027), hindered by scarring effects, structural impediments, and global uncertainties.
The current account deficit is expected to widen in 2025 due to trade vulnerabilities, while inflation is forecast to rise slowly to ~4.5%.
Downside risks include global economic slowdown, fiscal consolidation challenges, and persistent poverty. Upside potential exists if structural reforms in trade, investment, and SOEs accelerate.

Accelerate reforms to enhance competitiveness, attract investment, and reduce the economy's inward orientation.
Strengthen macroeconomic stability through fiscal discipline, exchange rate flexibility, and continued financial sector reforms.
Focus on inclusive growth by boosting employment, supporting SMEs, and addressing regressive taxation.

展开完整摘要