20210601-IMF-The_Poverty_and_Distributional_Impacts_of_Carbon_Pricing_Channels_and_Policy_Implications_32页_930kb

报告摘要

IMF Working Paper Summary

WP/21/172

Poverty and Distributional Impacts of Carbon Pricing

By Baoping Shang

Abstract

This paper systematically reviews the channels through which carbon pricing (e.g., carbon taxes, emissions trading systems) can affect poverty and inequality. Key findings include:

Four Major Channels: Consumption, income, health, and revenue recycling.
Empirical Evidence: Pass-through rates vary by sector; production responses by firms can mitigate cost increases; revenue recycling measures are crucial for offsetting welfare losses.
Gaps in Literature: Limited research on firm responses, structural changes in factor income, and leakages through trade exemptions.
Policy Implications: Tailor designs to specific country conditions, prioritize short-term measures, and implement targeted support for vulnerable groups.

Key Findings

1. The Four Channels

Consumption Channel: High-income households may bear higher energy costs due to price pass-through.
Income Channel: Job losses in fossil-fuel sectors (e.g., coal) contrast with green job creation but require transitional support.
Health Channel: Carbon pricing reduces air pollution, benefiting low-income populations disproportionately.
Revenue Recycling Channel: Cash transfers, tax reductions, and public investments are effective mitigation tools.

2. Challenges in Policy Design

Uncertainty: Some channels (e.g., innovation diffusion, climate co-benefits) lack precise data.
Trade-offs: Balancing revenue-raising with minimal economic distortion.
Geographical Disparities: Job losses in regions dependent on extractive industries may exacerbate local poverty.

3. Recommendations

Short-Term Focus: Use targeted cash transfers and tax cuts to offset immediate burdens.
Long-Term Strategy: Invest in education, healthcare, and green infrastructure to address structural changes.
Country-Specific Adjustments: Consider local political and economic contexts.