电力现货市场系列报告5：省间、山西及山东省电力现货市场建设情况及独立储能收益展望-20231119-中邮证券-19页_948kb

Power Equipment Industry Report Summary

Market Overview

The report summarizes progress in Chinese electricity spot markets, with a deep dive into independent energy storage stations. Focusing on pioneering provinces Shandong and Shanxi, the market shows rapid development: Shandong leads with independent storage participation via autonomous scheduling, while Shanxi has the highest cumulative operation days, supported by national initiatives like the "Three Links and Nine Directs" high-voltage project. Power现货 market mechanisms are advancing, facilitating renewable energy integration and creating opportunities for储能 infrastructure.

Independent Storage Economic Analysis

• Revenue Streams: Independent storage earns from capacity leasing, spot arbitrage, ancillary services (e.g., frequency regulation in Shanxi), and subsidies in Shanxi. Sensitivity analyses reveal high impact from factors like spot price differences (e.g., Shandong IRR improves 38% with a 0.6 yuan/kWh increase).
• IRR Results: Post-tax IRR varies significantly—Shanxi achieves 59% under optimistic scenarios with factors like year-round operation, while Shandong shows a negative -18% due to lower price differences and higher costs.
• Key Drivers: Declining lithium prices (e.g., battery cell costs dropping below 0.5 yuan/Wh) boost economic feasibility through reduced EPC and operation costs, enhancing storage competitiveness.

Investment Recommendations

As independent storage gains viability, the report recommends focusing on specific areas:

• Stakeholders: Battery integration benefits from lithium price declines; recommended companies include Linyang Energy and China Southern Power Grid Technology Co. for supply roles.
• Operators: Independent storage providers like Wanli Yang are favored for operational profits.
• Technologies: Model prediction services, such as those offered by Green Energy New, support enhanced market participation.

Risks

• Market Delays: Slower-than-expected reforms in power market mechanisms pose a key risk, potentially inhibiting independent storage adoption and economic improvements.
• Other Factors: Volatility in spot prices, regulatory changes, and supply-demand imbalances in lithium could affect long-term prospects.