2025-06-15-Jefferies-美国运通（AXP）_美国运通信贷_业绩喜忧参半_二阶导数稳定_贷款增长在发行方中最高_8页_349kb

American Express faced mixed card results in its recent monthly performance, with delinquency rates improving by 10 basis points, better than seasonal expectations, and net charge-offs rising by 10 basis points, weaker than historical trends. Loan growth reached $92.0B, increasing 1.4% month-over-month and 9.5% year-over-year, undershooting the JEF estimate of +10% for the quarter, though higher than typical seasonal patterns. However, rising net charge-offs and overall macroeconomic risks, such as potential declines in merchant discount rates, pose challenges.

• Performance Highlights:

  • Delinquency rates lowered 10 bps MoM, closing at 1.30%.
  • Net charge-offs rose 10 bps MoM to 2.10%, with a YoY revert from -50 bps to -30 bps.
  • Receivables increased 1.4% MoM and 9.5% YoY.
  • Card loans grew 9.5% YoY, slightly below JEF projections.

• Analyst View: Hold rating with a price target of $285 (down 1% from current trading), reit-(rating, due to mixed results and loan growth concerns. Jefferies anticipates slower loan growth amid economic headwinds.

• Risk Factors: The company faces risks including lower merchant acceptance, regulatory scrutiny, and potential credit downturns. Revenue reliance on merchant fees could be impacted by discount rate changes and broader economic conditions.