2025-05-20-Jefferies-Array（ARRY）_从新视角看待太阳能估值跃升维持买入评级_18页_1mb

Array (ARRY) Summary: Clean Energy Sector Outlook and Valuation

Core Content

Array (ARRY) is a U.S.-based tracker manufacturer primarily serving the utility-scale solar market. The company has been impacted by IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) uncertainty, which has depressed the entire renewables sector. However, the research team maintains a Buy rating and raises the price target (PT) to $10, citing a valuation reset and potential for recovery.

Main Points

• Recent Stock Performance: ARRY shares have risen by 56% since the last report, largely due to the budget reconciliation draft, which may ease IRA credit uncertainty.
• Valuation Discount: The stock is currently trading at a 51% discount to broader industrial peers based on EV/EBITDA FY26, which is near its 52-week high but still below pre-2024 levels.
• Estimates and Guidance:
  • 2025 Revenue: Estimated at $1,117mn, in line with consensus and above management's guidance range.
  • 2026 Revenue: Expected to grow to $1,309mn, or +6% vs. consensus.
  • 2027 Revenue: Projected at $1,412mn, or +8% vs. consensus.
• Gross Margin: Expected to reach 29.5% in FY25, up from the previous year. Margins are projected to decline slightly in FY26 and FY27 due to international revenue mix.
• EBITDA: Estimated at $194mn for FY25, with a +3% increase vs. consensus. EBITDA is expected to grow to $237mn in FY26.
• EPS: Forecasted at $0.68 for FY25, which is +10% vs. consensus and closer to the top of management's guidance range.
• Valuation Methodology: A blended approach using P/E, EV/EBITDA, and DCF valuation models, leading to a PT of $10.
• Price Target Justification:
  • Base Case: $10, based on a blend of valuation methods.
  • Upside Scenario: $15, with a 1x premium on EBITDA and 2x on P/E.
  • Downside Scenario: $5, with a 2x discount on EBITDA and P/E.
• Market Share and Backlog: The company is executing well with $>1bn in B2B backlog, potential for VCAs, and higher ASPs due to steel price trends.
• Sustainability and Operations:
  • Female Workforce: Target to increase female representation by 10% by 2025.
  • Renewable Energy Consumption: Aim to source 50% of direct energy from renewable sources by 2025.
  • Risk Management: Addressing internal control issues post-IPO and seeking IRS affirmation on tax credit eligibility for components.
• Industry Trends:
  • The U.S. solar tracker market is showing signs of recovery, with data center demand driving growth.
  • The broader supply chain is still at risk, but domestic content (domcon) is increasing, with peers like Nextracker already at 100% domcon and GameChange Solar aiming to reach it by Q4 2025.

Key Information

• Price Target: $10 (up from $7), with a +38% upside from current price.
• 52-Week Range: $14.69 (high) to $3.76 (low).
• Market Cap: $1.1B.
• Ticker: ARRY.
• Current Yield: 6%, higher than the 4% of industrial peers.
• Discount Rate: 10.2% in DCF (down from 11.1% previously).
• Valuation Metrics:
  • EV/EBITDA (FY26): 9.5x (up from 6.3x previously).
  • P/E (FY26): 13.7x (up from 8.2x previously).
• Catalysts for Growth:
  • Continued strong bookings in the U.S.
  • Clarity on IRA and tariff policies.
  • Improved tracking system market share.
  • Better margin integrity.

Investment Thesis

• Relative Value: Despite the recent valuation jump, ARRY is still undervalued compared to its peer set.
• Execution: The company is performing well in securing backlog and improving its EBITDA and EPS estimates.
• Sector Outlook: The renewables sector is expected to recover as data center demand and IRA clarity improve.
• Competitive Position: ARRY is seen as a better play in the broader solar recovery than NXT, although NXT is expected to trade at a premium due to its larger size and stronger balance sheet.

Conclusion

Array is positioned well for a recovery in the U.S. solar market, with strong execution, improving EBITDA, and a compelling valuation relative to broader industrial peers. The research team believes the stock is undervalued and has raised its price target to $10, maintaining the Buy rating. The company's ability to convert backlog into revenue and its focus on sustainability and domestic content are key drivers of future growth.