20240317-IMF-Somalia_Technical_Assistance_Report-Consumer_Price_Index_Mission_May_3–14,_2023_12页_274kb

Summary of Mission Outcomes and Priority Recommendations

Mission Overview

• The IMF Technical Assistance mission in May 2023 supported Somalia's National Bureau of Statistics (SNBS) in updating the Consumer Price Index (CPI), including deriving new weights from the Somalia Integrated Household Budget Survey (SIHBS), expanding geographical coverage, and introducing a new COICOP 2018 classification. The mission aimed to ensure the CPI reflects current consumption patterns and addresses security constraints, leading the team to Nairobi due to risks in Somalia.

Priority Recommendations

• Target Dates and Actions:
  • May 2023: Finalize SIHBS validation and complete new CPI weights.
  • June 2023: Begin price collection for new items in all states.
  • September 2023: Establish the price reference period, link COICOP 1999 to 2018, and re-reference the CPI.
  • January 2024: Disseminate the new national CPI.
• Key Outcomes:
  • New weights based on SIHBS are derived, but data validation and expenditure adjustments are ongoing.
  • Geographical coverage expanded to include central and regional states, with training for state offices.
  • New basket includes items under COICOP 2018, emphasizing services and removing obsolete goods.

Detailed Technical Assessment and Recommendations

A. Integrated Household Budget Survey – Deriving New Weights

• The SIHBS conducted in 2022 provides primary data but requires enhanced validation due to processing challenges. A correspondence table for COICOP 2018 codes was manually created to facilitate weight derivation. Further actions include splitting expenditures to state levels if feasible and building capacity for future surveys. Challenges remain in missing categories within COICOP divisions 08, 10, and 11, requiring additional data investigation.

B. Expanding Geographical Coverage

• Price collection now covers urban areas across most states, with enumerators assigned to each region. Two elementary aggregate indexes may be calculated for Mogadishu and the rest of the country. States are trained to compile their own indices, but SNBS will manage national calculation. Preparation is deferred to ensure sufficient data, including at least three months of prices for new items, pushing the CPI launch to an earlier 2024 timeline to address quality issues in initial collection.

C. New Basket and New Classification

• The new COICOP 2018 classification updates item categories, adding services like information and communication but removing some obsolete items. Rebuilding the basket should eliminate outdated goods, with implicit adjustments for quality changes. While the index calculation system is robust for aggregation, it must be tested with fictive data and adjusted for mean price calculations to ensure accuracy. New varieties should be incorporated through the system.

D. Officials Met During the Mission

• Staff from SNBS were engaged, including heads of sections and economists, highlighting collaborative efforts but revealing capacity gaps in data handling and future expansion planning.