2015年-普华永道全球_Capital_Markets_2020_60页_6mb

Capital Markets 2020 Summary

Core Content

This document explores the future of capital markets in 2020, emphasizing the need for participants and users to adapt, innovate, and lead in a rapidly evolving landscape. It outlines the challenges and opportunities that will shape the industry, including geopolitical instability, regulatory changes, technological disruption, and the rise of shadow banking. The paper is based on insights from PwC's global teams and a survey of over 250 capital markets executives.

Main Questions

• Are capital markets participants and users prepared to reimagine the future and innovate?
• How will regulation, technology, and global trends affect the capital markets landscape?
• What are the key challenges and investment priorities for the industry?
• What role will new players and partnerships play in shaping the future of capital markets?

Key Information

1. The Changing Landscape of Capital Markets

• Capital markets in 2020 will look significantly different from today.
• Participants and users must embrace transformation to remain competitive.
• The industry is moving towards a new equilibrium, characterized by stability and predictability amid geopolitical uncertainty.
• The need to function freely, efficiently, and transparently is critical to supporting economic growth and investment returns.

2. Challenges Facing Capital Markets

• Client and Stakeholder Pressures: Clients are more demanding and informed due to new technology and data access.
• Regulatory Compliance: 19% of executives cite regulatory challenges as a significant issue, with global banks expected to benefit most from proactive compliance.
• Reputational Damage: Fiduciary responsibilities and cultural values are under scrutiny, leading to distrust in the financial services sector.
• Shadow Banking Threat: 70% of executives see shadow banking as a moderate to severe threat, with potential for further market share loss.
• Operational and Technological Restructuring: Participants must re-engineer their operating models and focus on client-centric strategies.

3. Investment Priorities

• Enhancing Client Service: 56% of executives cited improving client service as their top investment priority.
• Adapting to New Technologies: 33% prioritized adapting to new technologies, highlighting the importance of innovation in operational efficiency.
• Attracting and Retaining Talent: 33% of executives see this as a top challenge, underscoring the need for a skilled workforce.
• Increasing Client Profitability: 36% identified this as a major challenge, indicating the need for better value delivery.

4. Future Scenarios

• Crippling Global Cyber Attack: Likely to disrupt markets and lead to increased government intervention and focus on cybersecurity.
• New Regulation Restricting Profitability: Expected to have a significant impact on market operations and cost structures.
• Loss of Market Share to Non-Traditional Players: Shadow banking and FinTech are anticipated to challenge traditional institutions.
• Large Macro-Idiosyncratic Risk: Could lead to systemic failures and re-evaluation of risk management strategies.
• High Inflation Due to Central Bank Policies: May result from efforts to reduce sovereign debt, impacting capital markets and investment returns.

5. The Role of Collaboration and Innovation

• Collaboration among participants, users, and technology vendors is essential to extend reach and capabilities.
• New business models and partnerships will be necessary to stay competitive.
• Technology is a key enabler of change, facilitating new products, services, and business models.
• The "War for Resources" will drive capital markets to reallocate resources to meet global needs and reduce geopolitical tensions.

6. Project Blue Framework

• PwC's proprietary framework helps identify key trends and drivers of change.
• It outlines seven macro themes that influence the capital markets landscape.
• The framework supports strategic rethinking and organizational reinvention.

Conclusion

To succeed in 2020 and beyond, capital markets participants and users must not only understand the evolving environment but also take a proactive stance in shaping the future. The key to long-term success lies in embracing change, fostering innovation, and building strong client relationships and ethical cultures. The document serves as a guide for industry leaders to formulate strategies that align with these trends and prepare for a dynamic and uncertain future.

Figures and Survey Insights

• Figure 1: Shadow banking assets are expected to grow, potentially exceeding 25% of global financial assets by 2020.
• Figure 2: Top three challenges for capital markets organizations include increasing client profitability, attracting and retaining talent, and adapting to new technologies.
• Figure 3: Top three investment priorities include improving client service, adapting to new technologies, and enhancing operational efficiency.
• Figure 4: Most likely scenarios include a global cyber attack, new regulations, and loss of market share to non-traditional players.
• Figure 5: Top five scenarios identified by survey participants: global cyber attack, new regulation, loss of market share, macro risk, and high inflation.
• Figure 6: Project Blue framework highlights primary and secondary impacts on the banking and capital markets landscape.

Authors

• Bob Sullivan – PwC US, Global Banking and Capital Markets Leader
• John Garvey – PwC US, Global Financial Services Advisory Leader
• Justo Alcocer – PwC Spain, EMEA Banking and Capital Markets Leader
• Antony Eldridge – PwC Singapore, Asia-Pacific Banking and Capital Markets Leader