2025-05-23-Jefferies-Workday公司（WDAY）_居中向下_9页_153kb

Workday, Inc. (WDAY) Equity Research Summary

Core Content

Workday, Inc. (WDAY) reported a slightly better-than-expected F1Q with subscription revenue and cRPO growth both exceeding expectations by approximately 50 bps. The company's performance was attributed to strong service revenue and continued traction in AI products. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment and off-quarter end effects in April, the quarter is viewed as solid but not a breakout.

Main Points

• Revenue Performance: Total revenue came in 1% above expectations, driven by strong services revenue. cRPO growth reached 15.6%, surpassing the expected 15%.
• Margin and Cash Flow: Margins and cash flow were both strong, with margins coming in ~10% above expectations and cash flow ~35% above expectations.
• Margin Guidance: The company raised its FY26 margin guidance by 50 bps to 28.5%, with potential for further expansion beyond the FY27 target of 30%.
• AI and Full Suite Deals: AI products saw a doubling in ACV year-over-year, and 25% of customer expansions included at least one AI product. Full suite deals accounted for 30% of net new wins.
• Share Repurchase Authorization: Workday increased its share repurchase authorization by $1B, raising the total to $1.5B (~2% of market cap).

Key Areas to Watch

• Macro Impact: Potential headwinds in SLED, Healthcare, and International markets are noted, though no material impact has been observed yet.
• Billings Softness: Year-over-year billings growth was below expectations, attributed to more flexible payment terms for longer deployment cycles. However, the company maintains healthy cash flow generation (CFO up 23% y/y).

Investment Thesis

• Valuation: WDAY trades at ~21x CY26E FCF, a 25% discount to the software coverage median on comparable growth.
• Growth Potential: The company has a large and expanding TAM, with low attach rates and international growth opportunities.
• Risks: High competition from incumbents like SAP and Oracle, high R&D costs, and uncertainty in the Financials applications market.

Price Targets and Scenarios

• Base Case: $325, +19% based on DCF with 16% and 13% free cash flow growth in FY2028E and FY2029E.
• Upside Scenario: $420, +54% based on DCF with 23% and 21% free cash flow growth in FY2028E and FY2029E.
• Downside Scenario: $200, -26% based on DCF with 9% and ~6% free cash flow growth in FY2028E and FY2029E.

Valuation Methodology

• Price Target: Based on DCF, EBITDA, EPS, and other financial metrics.
• Ratings: Buy, Hold, Underperform based on expected total return over the next 12 months.

Company Valuation

• Market Cap: $73.1B
• Ticker: WDAY
• Current Price: $272.07
• Price Target: $325
• 52W High-Low: $294.00 - $199.81
• Float: 78.8%
• Average Daily Float (ADV): 461.35 MM USD

Sustainability and ESG

• Data Security: Workday manages highly sensitive data and uses advanced security practices.
• Employee Engagement and Diversity: Emphasis on a diverse and inclusive workforce to enhance efficiency.
• Company Targets:
  • 100% renewable electricity by FY2030.
  • 25% reduction in Scope 3 business travel emissions by FY2026.
  • 70% of suppliers to have science-based climate targets by FY2026.

Key Questions to Management

• What steps is management taking to reduce absolute Scope 3 business travel emissions?
• How does management track volunteer hours across the employee base?

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: $325
• Analysts: Brent Thill, Alex Nguyen, Ria Naidu

Other Companies Mentioned

• Adobe Inc. (ADB: $414.33, BUY)
• Intuit Inc. (INTU: $666.07, BUY)
• Microsoft Corporation (MSFT: $454.86, BUY)
• Oracle Corporation (ORCL: $157.31, BUY)
• Salesforce.com (CRM: $283.42, BUY)
• ServiceNow Inc. (NOW: $1,015.77, BUY)

Analyst Certification

All analysts certify that the views expressed are their personal opinions and not influenced by compensation.

Important Disclosures

• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to business relationships.
• This report is not intended as a recommended portfolio and is not sector-based.
• Investors are advised to consider this report as one of many factors in making investment decisions.

Summary of Key Financials

Rating and Price Target History

Conclusion

Workday, Inc. remains an attractive defensive play due to its sticky products, capable management team, and significant margin upside. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the company's consistent execution and growth in AI and Financials applications support a Buy rating with a $325 price target.