2025-05-28-Jefferies-奥克塔（OKTA）_表现良好的季度_未达高期望_12页_627kb

Okta delivered a strong quarterly performance with 14% year-over-year Growth Run Rate (cRPO) growth, beating the midpoint of its own guidance but missing investor expectations of ~15% growth. For the fiscal year 2026, revenue is maintained at 9-10% year-over-year, incorporating prudence due to macroeconomic uncertainty, and the company noted no softness in its pipeline. Profitability improved significantly, with margins beating expectations, and free cash flow guide raised to approximately 27%.

The analyst rating is Hold, with a price target raised to $130, reflecting a cautious outlook due to macro risks but confidence in Okta's identity platform capabilities. Key positives include traction in the public sector and large deals like Auth0, while risks focus on execution challenges, potential slowdown in bookings, and macroeconomic headwinds. Valuation at 6x enterprise value to 2026 revenue is supported by DCF models suggesting share prices ranging from $111 to $160, though current trading is down 4% after a prior price target of $135.

The report emphasizes Okta's role in cloud identity management, highlighting its AM/IGA/PAM/CIAM product portfolio as a major growth driver, with continued "land and expand" strategies expected to boost net retention rates. However, macro uncertainty remains a key concern, and historical performance shows marked declines in bookings for the first quarter in its public history.