2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Albania_Selected_Issues_41页_864kb

Summary of Selected Issues Paper on Albania (May 12, 2016)

Core Content

This paper analyzes Albania's economic growth and output, focusing on the factors that have influenced its performance since the global financial crisis. It evaluates the contributions of total factor productivity (TFP), capital, labor, and human capital to growth, and estimates potential output and output gaps using various methods. Additionally, it examines the impact of credit cycles on potential output and provides policy recommendations to enhance growth.

Main Views

• Growth Slowdown: Albania's real GDP growth slowed significantly from 5.5% in 1997–2008 to 2.4% in 2009–14, a decline of 3.2 percentage points. Of this decline, 2.8 percentage points are attributed to a reduction in potential growth.

• TFP Contribution: TFP has declined since the 2000s, falling from 2.8% in 1997–2008 to 1.2% in 2009–14. The slowdown in TFP is due to decelerating technological convergence, the end of privatization, and decreasing returns from resource reallocation. Structural reforms in property rights, rule of law, and governance have been slower than in new EU member states.

• Capital and Labor: Physical capital accumulation slowed after the 2000s construction boom, while labor contributions remained negative due to demographic trends. However, labor force participation has improved since the crisis, aided by government employment initiatives.

• Human Capital: Human capital growth, measured by average years of schooling, has decelerated compared to the 1990s and regional peers. It increased from 9.5 in 2000 to 9.9 in 2010 but has since plateaued.

• Output Gap: The output gap in 2016 ranged from -0.2% to -2.6% of GDP, depending on the estimation method. All methods suggest that the economy has been below potential since 2013, with the output gap gradually closing.

• Credit Cycles: Credit booms in the 2000s temporarily boosted potential output, but the impact of credit cycles on output gaps has been significant. The paper adjusts potential output estimates to account for these effects, showing that the average increase in potential growth due to credit cycles was around 0.5 percentage points during 2002–08.

• Policy Recommendations: Enhancing potential growth through structural reforms should be a top priority. Key reforms include improving land property rights, strengthening the rule of law, combating corruption, and reforming the judiciary system. These reforms would improve resource reallocation and investment returns.

Key Information

Growth Accounting

• TFP and capital contributions declined by half from 1997–2008 to 2009–14.
• Labor and human capital contributions were negative, especially during the post-crisis period.
• The production function approach breaks down growth into contributions from TFP, capital, and labor.

Medium-Term Growth Outlook

• Albania's growth is expected to recover to around 4% of GDP, consistent with regional peers.
• FDI and continued reforms towards EU accession are expected to support growth.
• The reform scenario assumes a potential growth of 3.1–3.3% and an output gap of -0.2 to -2.6%.
• The output gap is projected to gradually close.

Potential Output Estimation

• Five models are used to estimate potential output: two HP filters, two production functions, and a multivariate filter.
• The HP filter is used as the baseline, with potential growth estimated at 2.9–3.1% in 2016.
• The output gap is calculated as the difference between actual and potential growth.

Credit Cycles and Sustainable Output

• Credit booms in the 2000s temporarily increased potential output.
• Sustainable output is defined as output that can be produced without imbalances.
• The HP filter is expanded to include financial cycle variables, such as credit to the private sector and housing prices, to estimate sustainable output.

TFP Determinants

• TFP is influenced by institutional quality, regulatory environment, and political risk.
• TFP contribution to growth is expected to be 1.2–1.7 percentage points from 2016 to 2020, depending on institutional improvements.
• Institutional improvements could increase TFP by up to 0.5 percentage points.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Real GDP growth in the Western Balkans.

• Figure 2: Real GDP growth in Albania.

• Figure 3: Growth accounting in Albania.

• Figure 4: Real GDP growth contributions in the Western Balkans.

• Figure 5: Average years of schooling in Albania.

• Figure 6: Population trends in Albania.

• Figure 7: Labor force participation and employment rate in Albania.

• Figure 8: Expected convergence of CESEE countries.

• Figure 9–11: Output gap estimates.

• Figure 12: Housing prices and credit to the private sector in Albania.

• Figure 13–14: Output gaps and potential growth during the credit boom.

• Table 1: Growth accounting in Albania.

• Table 2: Medium-term growth projections.

• Table 3: Potential growth and output gap in 2016.

• Table 4: Real GDP growth and potential growth over time.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that Albania's average growth from 2009–14 dropped by 3.2 percentage points relative to 1997–2008, with 2.8 percentage points attributed to lower potential growth. The main policy implication is that countercyclical policies should target a potential growth rate of 2.9–3.2%, not historical levels of 5–6%. Enhancing potential growth through structural reforms is crucial, particularly in areas such as land property rights, rule of law, and judicial reform.