2016年-世界发展银行全球_All_Aboard___Policies_for_Shared_Prosperity_in_Myanmar_24页_1mb

Summary of "Policies for Shared Prosperity in Myanmar"

Introduction

Myanmar has experienced significant economic growth since the 2015 elections, with an average real GDP growth rate of 7% between 2011 and 2014, one of the fastest in East Asia. This growth has been driven by economic liberalization, increased investment, and improved productivity. However, the benefits of this growth have not been evenly distributed, and challenges remain in ensuring inclusive development across different regions, ethnic groups, and income levels. The World Bank Group's policy notes aim to promote dialogue and generate ideas for policies that can lead to shared prosperity.

The six policy notes focus on interconnected areas that are critical for inclusive growth: closing the gap in access to social services, reducing rural poverty, fostering competitiveness and private sector growth, building an open and inclusive financial system, enhancing access to sustainable energy, and promoting public sector accountability.

Core Content and Main Themes

1. Closing the Gap: Expanding Access to Social Services

• Core Content: Myanmar's human capital is a major asset, with a young and productive population. However, decades of underinvestment in health, education, and social protection have led to inequality in access to these services.
• Main Viewpoints:
  • Public spending on health and education has increased since 2011, helping to reduce out-of-pocket expenditures.
  • A more equitable distribution of services is essential to improve productivity and employability.
  • The ongoing peace process requires special attention to ensure social services reach conflict-affected areas.
• Key Information:
  • 29% of the population are children (future workforce).
  • 66% of the population is of productive age.
  • Social assistance reaches only 0.1% of the population, much lower than the average of 39% in East Asian and Pacific countries.
  • An additional year of schooling is associated with a 6.7% increase in income.

2. Growing Together: Reducing Rural Poverty

• Core Content: Rural areas are the foundation of Myanmar's structural transformation, but they lag in access to economic and social services.
• Main Viewpoints:
  • Improving agriculture productivity is essential to both rural development and overall economic growth.
  • Fiscal decentralization and community-driven development programs have been introduced to improve local service delivery.
  • Better targeting of public resources through data and evidence can enhance rural development outcomes.
• Key Information:
  • 70% of Myanmar's population lives in rural areas.
  • Agriculture employs over 50% of the labor force but contributes only 10-15% to GDP.
  • Non-agricultural sectors have driven 80% of GDP growth since 2011.

3. Breaking Business as Usual: Fostering Competitiveness and Private Sector Growth

• Core Content: Myanmar has a strong potential for private sector-led growth, supported by regulatory reforms and infrastructure development.
• Main Viewpoints:
  • The business regulatory environment is a key determinant of private sector growth and competitiveness.
  • Recent improvements in laws (e.g., Investment Law, Companies Law, Arbitration Law) have enhanced the business climate.
  • Trade facilitation remains a challenge, with issues such as logistics, customs, and tariff structures affecting external competitiveness.
• Key Information:
  • Number of registered companies increased from 30,000 in 2011 to 58,000 in 2015.
  • Foreign Direct Investment rose from $3.6 billion in 2013 to $8 billion in 2014.
  • Trade potential is high, given Myanmar's proximity to 40% of the world's population and 15% of global GDP.

4. Financing the Future: Building an Open, Modern, and Inclusive Financial System

• Core Content: A modern and inclusive financial system is essential to support economic growth and reduce inequality.
• Main Viewpoints:
  • Financial sector expansion has supported both domestic and foreign trade.
  • Private sector credit to GDP is still low at around 16%, limiting investment opportunities.
  • Financial inclusion and a modern legal and regulatory framework are necessary to manage risks and promote competition.
• Key Information:
  • Credit to the private sector has grown by 50% annually since 2011.
  • Banking sector deposits increased from 16% to 33% of GDP.
  • Financial sector reforms are needed to prevent bad assets and support a modern payments system.

5. Energizing Myanmar: Enhancing Access to Sustainable Energy for All

• Core Content: Access to energy is critical for productivity, competitiveness, and inclusive growth.
• Main Viewpoints:
  • Myanmar's electricity consumption is among the lowest globally, limiting economic development.
  • Institutional reforms in the energy sector are necessary to improve policy coordination and investment.
  • A strong regulatory framework can improve transparency, competition, and private sector participation.
• Key Information:
  • The National Electrification Plan aims to connect at least 500,000 households per year.
  • Private sector participation in power generation has increased, with IPPs reaching 10% of installed capacity by 2015.
  • Strategic development of gas and hydropower is proposed to meet long-term energy needs.

6. Participating in Change: Promoting Public Sector Accountability

• Core Content: A transparent and accountable public sector is essential for implementing reforms and ensuring inclusive growth.
• Main Viewpoints:
  • The public sector must be open and adaptable to meet the evolving needs of the population.
  • Strengthening public sector transparency and decentralization can improve service delivery and reduce corruption.
  • Taxation and public participation in policy-making are key to aligning public spending with national priorities.
• Key Information:
  • Public sector transparency and decentralization have started to improve.
  • A new mindset is needed where tax collection is seen as a means to fund public services and development.
  • Public sector accountability is crucial for reducing inequality and improving governance.

Key Policy Options

Conclusion

The six policy notes emphasize the need for a coordinated and inclusive approach to development in Myanmar. They highlight the importance of improving access to social services, boosting rural productivity, fostering a competitive business environment, building a modern financial system, enhancing energy access, and promoting public sector accountability. These policies are essential for ensuring that growth is shared across all regions, ethnic groups, and income levels, and for creating a sustainable and equitable development path. The implementation of these reforms will require strong governance, effective institutions, and continued public engagement to ensure that the benefits of growth are widely felt.