2019全球私募股权报告（英文版）-贝恩-2019.2-88页_4mb

2019 Global Private Equity Report Summary

Core Content

The Global Private Equity Report 2019 by Bain & Company provides an in-depth analysis of the private equity (PE) industry in 2018 and outlines key strategies shaping the sector in 2019 and beyond. The report emphasizes the resilience of the PE industry despite macroeconomic uncertainties, technological disruption, and high competition. It also highlights the evolving role of PE firms in navigating a changing market landscape and explores opportunities in emerging markets, particularly China.

Main Points and Key Insights

1. Market Overview in 2018

• The PE industry continued to make deals, find exits, and raise capital at a historic five-year pace.
• Deal value surged to $582 billion, with a 10% increase in total buyout value, marking the strongest five-year run in history.
• Deal count declined by 13% to 2,936 worldwide, reflecting intense competition and rising asset prices.
• Public-to-private (P2P) deals reached their highest level since the 2006–07 boom, driven by public investors undervaluing complex businesses.

2. Challenges in 2018

• High deal multiples, a lack of attractive targets, and fierce competition remain the top challenges for PE firms.
• Macroeconomic uncertainty persists due to trade tensions, Brexit, and the threat of recession.
• Dry powder reached a record high of $2 trillion in 2018, raising concerns about overvaluation and potential market corrections.

3. PE Firm Strategies

• The most effective PE firms are not retreating from the market but are preparing for both success and downturns.
• They are targeting sectors and assets where they have the most confidence and strategically bidding in auctions.
• Firms are enhancing due diligence by incorporating performance improvement experts and running downside scenario analyses to better assess risk.

4. Strategic Adjustments

• PE firms are building merger integration capabilities to compete with corporate buyers.
• Preemptive bids are becoming more common, especially in Europe.
• Firms are also underwriting new types of risk, including digital disruption and supply chain consolidation.

5. The Role of Debt Markets

• Despite rising US interest rates, debt multiples have increased, with almost 40% of deals using leverage above 7 times EBITDA.
• Covenant-lite loans are increasingly common, allowing firms to use projected earnings rather than actual results to calculate multiples.

6. China's Private Equity Market

• China's new economy has seen rapid expansion, with the Internet and technology sectors driving most of the growth.
• In 2018, global investors poured $881 billion into Chinese start-ups, representing 32% of global venture capital.
• Chinese consumers are tech-savvy and embrace new products and services quickly, with mobile payments reaching $9 trillion in 2016.
• The tech sector in China is characterized by intense competition, fast growth, and aggressive expansion into adjacent industries.

7. Future Outlook

• The report suggests that the PE industry is on the cusp of a long-term shift toward larger private capital opportunities compared to traditional public equity models.
• Advanced analytics and value creation strategies are becoming more critical for firms to gain competitive advantage.
• Sponsor-to-sponsor deals are still valuable, with performance at least as strong as primary buyouts and often with less risk.

Key Takeaways

• PE firms are adapting to a more uncertain macroeconomic environment by improving due diligence and strategic planning.
• China's tech sector is a key growth area, with a rapidly evolving digital landscape and significant investment inflows.
• Dry powder remains high, but the industry is not at risk of overleveraging due to the relatively short duration of current capital.
• Strategic buyers and corporate acquirers are increasing their presence in the market, especially for large carve-outs and P2P transactions.
• The buy-and-build strategy is gaining popularity, but it requires strong execution to be successful.
• Digital disruption and technological innovation are reshaping the investment landscape, prompting firms to rethink their approaches.

Conclusion

The 2019 Global Private Equity Report underscores the importance of strategic agility, advanced analytics, and value creation in a rapidly evolving market. While challenges persist, the industry shows resilience and is positioning itself for long-term growth. China's tech sector and the shift toward private capital are particularly noteworthy as emerging trends. As the PE industry continues to evolve, firms that invest in new capabilities and strategic foresight will be best positioned to thrive.