IMF-澳大利亚：精选问题（英）-2024.1-21页_1mb

报告摘要

This report analyzes Australia's migration trends and their impact on the economy.

A. Recent Trends in Migration

Australia's population (26 million) relies heavily on overseas migration, especially with declining natural increase.
Fertility rate has fallen below replacement level, making net overseas migration (NOM) responsible for ~60% of population growth.
A surge in migration recently (driven by students from India/China and skilled workers) contributed significantly to population growth.

B. Migration in an International Context

Australia has a higher percentage of foreign-born population (30%) compared to OECD countries (avg. 14%).
Migrants are highly educated, with ~60% holding tertiary degrees, higher than other OECD countries.
Most migrants are skilled workers or students, contributing positively to labor market outcomes.

C. Impact of Migration

Macro effects are hard to disentangle from drivers like economic opportunities.
Analysis shows a positive correlation between migration and real GDP, employment, and productivity, with negligible overall inflation impact.
While minimal inflation effect is noted, housing prices are positively associated with migration, reflecting supply constraints.
Endogeneity issues exist in determining casual effects, but cross-country instrumental variables confirm positive macroeconomic impacts.

E. Conclusion

Migration is a key driver of Australia's population growth and skilled labor force.
Historically, migration surges have boosted growth and labor market outcomes without major inflation effects, except in housing affordability.
Addressing housing supply shortages is crucial to improve affordability.

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