CBRE+2023美国生命科学行业展望-72页_7mb

Summary of 2023 U.S. Life Sciences Outlook Report

Executive Summary

The U.S. life sciences industry experienced a return to a more normal growth pace in 2023 after record years in 2020-2021, with record employment but slower job growth. Demand for lab/R&D space remains strong, and new construction is expected to increase supply, moderately raising vacancy rates while keeping rents elevated. Funding uncertainties from reduced venture capital and banking turmoil persist, but NIH funding and R&D expenditures provide support. Key markets include Boston/Cambridge, San Francisco Bay Area, and Seattle. Emerging economies and government incentives fuel growth, and the industry's resilience to economic downturns is expected to hold.

Employment

Life sciences employment hit a record 2.1 million jobs in early 2023, with San Francisco Bay Area, Boston/Cambridge, and Seattle showing the fastest growth. Job growth slowed due to higher interest rates and funding pullbacks, but historical data suggests recovery and resilience even in potential recessions. Unemployment for scientific roles remained low.

Funding

Venture capital funding declined in 2023 amid banking turmoil, but Q4 2022 showed stabilization; it may exceed pre-pandemic averages. Company R&D expenditures and NIH funding surged, supporting innovation. Initial public offerings dropped but stayed above pre-pandemic averages. NIH funding grew significantly, with top recipients in New York/New Jersey and Boston/Cambridge.

Laboratory/R&D Trends

Lab/R&D inventory grew 47% over five years to 181.7 million sq. ft., with record construction under way. Vacancy rates rose moderately, especially in markets like Boston/Cambridge and San Francisco Bay Area, but remain below long-term averages. Rents are high and stable, supported by strong demand and new leases. Leasing activity decreased slightly in 2022 amid economic uncertainty, but pipeline remains robust.

Biomanufacturing/GMP Trends

Demand for Biomanufacturing/GMP facilities persists despite slowed leasing in 2022, with markets like Boston-Cambridge, San Francisco Bay Area, and Raleigh-Durham leading in capacity. Rent growth is robust, and vacancy increased moderately, reflecting ongoing need for specialized space.

Investment Trends

Lab/R&D investment sales declined year-over-year to $14.4 billion in 2022, with San Francisco Bay Area and Boston-Cambridge seeing the biggest drops. Cap rates stabilized, indicating tight pricing and strong investor sentiment. The industry remains attractive compared to other property types, and capital markets are mixed but favor active M&A.

Emerging Markets

Outstanding emerging hubs include Atlanta (fastest job growth), Dallas/Ft. Worth (robust R&D), and Nashville (highest R&D growth). These markets benefit from strong institutions, venture capital inflows, and NIH funding, attracting high-paying jobs.

Government Incentives

Incentive programs at state and local levels offset operating costs and capital investments, especially during inflation. States like Indiana, New York, and North Carolina led recent deals, totaling nearly $2.5 billion. Incentives range from tax offsets to grants and land discounts, underwriting real estate growth.

Outlook

The life sciences industry is better equipped to weather recessions than most sectors, based on historical data. Employment stabilization is expected as funding normalizes, with significant M&A and expansion predicted. Supply growth will moderate vacancy and price pressures, but demand from scientific discovery and emerging markets will continue driving investment. Projections indicate another strong year for M&A, real estate transactions, and new clinical trial filings.

Conclusion

Despite rising uncertainties from economic and financial market challenges, the U.S. life sciences sector maintains strong momentum through innovation, robust funding, and support from government incentives. Growth is expected to continue, albeit at a moderated pace, with key challenges being managed.