2009年-世界发展银行全球_Agricultural_Growth_and_Poverty_Reduction_20页_268kb

Summary: Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction

Core Content

This paper examines the role of agricultural growth in poverty reduction, emphasizing that it is a more effective tool than transfers for reducing poverty in developing countries. The analysis explores both direct and indirect effects of agricultural growth on poverty and highlights the importance of context in determining its effectiveness. The study also discusses the need for public investment in agriculture and the conditions under which such investment can yield high returns for poverty reduction.

Main Points

• Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction: Agricultural growth has a stronger poverty reduction effect compared to growth in other sectors, particularly for the poorest 40 percent of the population. It can also have significant indirect effects on the rest of the economy.
• Land and Labor Productivity: Increases in land productivity (e.g., yield growth) and labor productivity in agriculture both contribute to poverty reduction, but their effectiveness varies across regions and depends on the production structure.
• Regional Variations: The poverty reduction impact of agricultural growth differs significantly by region. For example, in East Asia, a 10 percent increase in cereal yields led to a 53 percent decline in rural poverty, whereas in Sub-Saharan Africa, yields were largely stagnant, and poverty reduction was minimal.
• Income and Expenditure Effects: GDP growth originating in agriculture has a more pronounced effect on the expenditures of the poorest households compared to non-agricultural growth. In China, agricultural growth was found to be about three times more effective in reducing poverty than non-agricultural growth.
• Linkage Effects: Agricultural growth indirectly supports overall economic growth by stimulating non-agricultural sectors, especially through labor and market linkages. In China, a 1 percent growth in agriculture led to a 51 percent indirect contribution to aggregate growth.
• Poverty Reduction Mechanisms: The effectiveness of agricultural growth in reducing poverty is not only due to its direct impact on rural incomes but also its indirect influence on urban and non-farm sectors, which can create employment and raise wages.
• Public Investment and Returns: Public investment in agriculture, particularly in research and development (R&D), can yield high returns, especially in countries where agriculture is a large share of GDP and where the poor are concentrated in rural areas. However, the effectiveness of such investment depends on the specific context and the structure of the economy.

Key Findings

• Poverty Reduction Power: Agricultural growth is more effective in reducing poverty than non-agricultural growth, especially when it is labor-intensive and accessible to smallholders.
• Sectoral Contributions: In China, a 1 percent growth in agriculture reduced poverty by 10.2 percent, while the same growth in non-agricultural sectors reduced it by 3.7 percent.
• Migration Impact: The contribution of rural areas to overall poverty reduction can be underestimated due to rural-urban migration. The rural contribution ranges from 45 to 93 percent of the aggregate poverty decline in the world between 1993 and 2002.
• Contextual Importance: The effectiveness of agricultural growth in poverty reduction is conditional on factors such as land tenure systems, migration patterns, and the tradability of agricultural products. In some cases, agricultural growth may be more effective in reducing poverty through lower food prices, while in others, it may be through higher employment and wages.

Policy Implications

• Agriculture-First Strategy: Agricultural growth should be prioritized in countries where it is a large share of GDP, where the poor are predominantly rural, and where there is a strong link between agricultural productivity and poverty reduction.
• Complementary Sectors: In addition to agriculture, other labor-intensive sectors, such as construction and informal services, can also contribute to poverty reduction, especially in rural non-farm economies.
• Need for Detailed Analysis: While agricultural growth is a powerful tool, its effectiveness depends on the context. Detailed case studies and empirical analysis are needed to assess the impact of public investment in agriculture.

Conclusion

Agricultural growth is a key instrument for poverty reduction, particularly in developing countries. It can generate both direct and indirect poverty reduction effects, and its success is contingent on structural conditions and the nature of public investment. Understanding these linkages and contextual factors is essential for designing effective poverty reduction strategies.