2009年-世界发展银行全球_Crop_Output_in_Vietnam_1992_to_2006___An_Analysis_of_the_Patterns_and_Sources_of_Growth_55页_1mb

Summary of "Crop Output in Vietnam, 1992 to 2006: An Analysis of the Patterns and Sources of Growth"

Core Content

This report analyzes the trends and sources of growth in Vietnam's crop output from 1992 to 2006 at the national and regional levels. It emphasizes the importance of the cropping sector, which accounts for 75-80% of the total value of agricultural output, and highlights the challenges in measuring real crop output due to the lack of detailed regional price deflators. The study uses data from the General Statistical Office (GSO) and micro-level price data from the Vietnam Living Standards Surveys (VLSS) to construct consistent regional and national price deflators, enabling the calculation of real output growth.

Main Objectives

• To provide a detailed analysis of real crop output trends in Vietnam.
• To examine the contributions of the extensive and intensive margins to output growth.
• To construct and apply regional and national price deflators to distinguish real output from nominal output influenced by international price trends.
• To assess regional differences in growth and crop composition.

Key Findings

Nominal and Real Output Growth

• Nominal Output: Increased from 33.6 trillion VND in 1992 to 182.8 trillion VND in 2006, with an average annual growth rate of 12.9%.
• Real Output Growth: National average real growth was 6.3% per annum over the 14-year period, with a secular decline from 8% (1992-1997) to 4.4% (2004-2006).
• Regional Growth:
  • Central Highlands (CH): Fastest growth at 16.0% per annum.
  • Red River Delta (RRD): Slowest growth at 2.5% per annum.
  • Mekong River Delta (MRD): Moderate growth at 5.0% per annum.
  • North East (NE), North West (NW), North Central Coast (NCC), and South East (SE): All showed growth above the national average, averaging 6% or more per annum.

Price Trends

• Price Inflation: Average annual price inflation was around 6.5% over the period, with notable fluctuations.
• 1992-1997: Prices rose sharply at 12% annually.
• 1997-2002: Prices declined, matching global trends.
• 2002-2006: Prices rebounded, increasing at 11% annually.
• Regional Variations: Price growth varied across regions, with the CH and SE experiencing higher growth rates compared to other regions.

Crop Composition Changes

• Cereals: Dominated early in the period, representing nearly 75% of crop output in 1992. By 2006, their share dropped to 56.90%.
• Perennials: Increased significantly, from 5.51% to 15.36% of total crop output.
• Fruits and Vegetables: Their shares also increased, with vegetables doubling in value.
• Annual Industrial Crops: Grew by 53% in sown area.
• Deltas: Continued to focus on cereals, while the CH and SE shifted toward perennials and other cash crops.

Acreage Trends

• Total Sown Area: Increased by 40% over the period.
• Regional Expansion:
  • Central Highlands: Sown area increased more than three-fold.
  • South East and North West: Sown area increased by two-thirds.
  • Red River Delta (RRD): Sown area remained relatively stable.
• Decline in Sown Area: Growth in sown area slowed after 2002, with most regions exhausting expansion potential.

Decomposition of Output Growth

• Extensive Margin: Increase in sown area contributed to 30% of real output growth.
• Intensive Margin: Increase in yields and shift to higher-value crops accounted for the majority of growth, especially after 2002.
• Contribution Over Time:
  • 1992-2006: Extensive margin contributed 50%, intensive margin 50%.
  • 2002-2004 and 2004-2006: Intensive margin accounted for 80% and 70% of growth, respectively.
• RRD: Limited expansion in sown area led to growth primarily from yield increases and crop shifts.

Conclusion

Vietnam's crop output experienced robust growth across most regions from 1992 to 2006, with the Central Highlands and South East leading the way. However, growth in the Red River Delta lagged significantly. The shift from cereals to higher-value crops like perennials, fruits, and vegetables was a major driver of real output growth, especially after 2002. The study underscores the importance of using region-specific price deflators to accurately assess real output and highlights the role of both land expansion and productivity improvements in shaping agricultural growth in Vietnam.