2022-07-05-世界卫生组织-Immunization_Honduras_2022_country_profile_19页_382kb

Summary of Honduras Immunization Coverage Estimates (WHO & UNICEF, 2022)

Background

WHO and UNICEF provide country-specific estimates of immunization coverage for Honduras, based on empirical data from national reports, surveys, and adjustments for potential biases or data inconsistencies. These estimates are reviewed individually without borrowing data from other countries.

Methodology

• Data Sources: Empirical data include national administrative reports, surveys (e.g., ENDESA/MICS), and demographics.
• Grade of Confidence (GoC): Indicates empirical support; "•••" (high support), "••" (medium support), or lower with challenges like data inconsistencies.
• Estimate Process: Not based on probability models; instead, reported data may be calibrated, interpolated, or adjusted to minimize bias.
• Disclaimer: Estimates should be used cautiously, with consideration of data quality and potential overestimations due to recall bias or irregular target populations.

Key Findings by Vaccine

• BCG: Estimates consistently high (avg. 95-98%) with good confidence, supported by national data and surveys.
• DTP1: Coverage typically 85-96%, but faced calibration challenges in 2015-2016 due to inconsistent target populations, leading to exclusions.
• DTP3: Similar to DTP1, often high (80-98%), but declined around 2012-2013 due to increased target population and insecurity, with noted data inconsistencies.
• Polio (Pol3/Pol1): Early estimates high but declined (80-97%), with confidence varying due to calibration issues and recall bias adjustments.
• Measles Containing Vaccines (MCV1/MCV2): Coverage around 85-98%, with surveys confirming some doses, but estimates sometimes challenged by timing of introduction or data quality.
• Other Vaccines: Hepatitis B (HepBB/HepB3), Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib3), Rotavirus (RotaC), Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PcV3): Ranges similar, but estimates declined or faced issues in specific years due to population increases or analytical challenges.

General Observations

• Data Quality Issues: Reported values exceeding 100% were rejected or challenged in several years (e.g., 2015-2016), indicating possible errors in numerator/denominator data.
• Declining Trends: Coverage dropped around 2012-2013, potentially linked to increased target populations due to insecurity reducing outreach.
• Survey Role: Surveys corrected for recall bias (e.g., from MCV1 surveys in 2012), but inconsistencies between survey and reported data were noted.
• Recommendations: WHO and UNICEF urge revision of coverage time series for better comparability and consistency using a stable target population for at least ten years to improve accuracy.

Recent Estimates (2021)

Most vaccines estimated between 80-98%, with GoC varying; however, several face GoC challenges due to data issues, suggesting ongoing reliability concerns.