【国际能源署】越南实现净零电力行业-2024_54页_3mb

Vietnam's Electricity System: Vietnam's electricity demand surged eightfold between 2002 and 2022, driven by rapid economic growth. Coal remains the largest power source (41% in 2022), with plans to peak its use by the mid-2020s and phase it out by 2050. Renewable energy expansion, particularly solar PV and wind, is prioritized.

Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8): This plan outlines a pathway toward decarbonization by 2050, with an installed capacity target of 30 GW for coal by 2030. It aims to reduce emissions to 170 Mt CO₂ by 2030 through coal-to-gas switching and renewables deployment. Offshore wind and hydrogen/ammonia are envisioned as key technologies.

Net Zero Pathways: Four scenarios are modeled:
PDP8: Full implementation of PDP8, with high investments into hydrogen/ammonia production.
PDP8+EE: Incorporates energy efficiency, reducing demand growth by ~20% by 2030.
PDP8+EE+LH: Uses slower renewables growth and hydrogen reduction to meet JETP targets.
NZE: Accelerated decarbonization, reaching net zero by 2045 through lower renewables reliance.

Key Challenges: Balancing high electricity demand growth with decarbonization, addressing grid limitations for variable renewables, phasing out coal efficiently, and reducing costs for hydrogen production (especially offshore wind).

Emissions and Affordability: Emissions peak around 2030 across all scenarios but decline rapidly thereafter. The PDP8+EE+LH and NZE scenarios achieve net zero by 2050 and 2045, respectively. Affordability remains stable post-2030 due to declining renewable costs, but energy efficiency investments yield significant consumer savings.

Flexibility and Grids: High variable renewable shares require enhanced system flexibility. Residential and commercial demand-response, battery storage, and grid modernization are critical for balancing supply. Ensuring security of supply depends on maintaining some dispatchable capacity and robust grid infrastructure.

Recommendations: Increase energy efficiency, accelerate renewable deployment (especially grid-connected solar PV), enhance grid investments, phase down coal systematically, foster hydrogen and ammonia use cautiously, and strengthen international cooperation to meet financial and regulatory challenges.