2025-05-22-Jefferies-ALS有限公司（ALQ）_2025财年业绩预览_7页_178kb

Company Overview: ALS Limited (ALQ AU) operates a large environmental testing business focusing on governments, mining and energy, food and pharmaceutical sectors. As of May 22, 2025, Jefferies assigned a "BUY" rating with a price target of AUD18.80, up from the prior closing price of AUD17.66.

Financial Forecast: The company guided FY25 Unlevered Net Profit After Tax (U-NPAT) to A$310m-A$313m, reflecting stable performance. Revenue is forecast at A$3.003bn for FY25, representing a 16% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in both Life Sciences and Commodities segments. The FY26 outlook is positive, with potential surprises due to recovering Minerals volumes and integration of recent M&A activities (e.g., Nuvisan, York, and Wessling acquisitions).

Key Growth Drivers: The Minerals segment has reversed its negative impact, now acting as a positive driver for growth. Recent M&A, accounting for ~12% of revenue, is expected to improve margins from below Life Sciences averages to near-average levels by FY27. Life Sciences shows strong organic growth at 6-10%, outperforming peers, supported by environmental services, which grew 10% year-on-year.

Valuation and Risks: Valuation uses a DCF model with a WACC of 9.0%, long-term growth rate of 3%, and EV/EBITDA based on global comparables. Risks include volatile mineral exploration spending, high fixed costs sensitive to volume declines, and competitive pricing pressures affecting margins during downturns.

Analyst Views: Jefferies highlights that ALS is a medium-term growth story driven by mineral volume recovery, M&A margin improvement, and Life Sciences expansion. The rating reflects upside from current levels, but the company remains susceptible to market volatility and sector-specific challenges.