2025-05-28-Jefferies-Wise（WISE）_2025财年预览_细节_催化剂和地域分布_12页_1002kb

报告摘要

UK Payments & FinTech Equity Research: Wise (FY25 Preview)

Source: Jefferies
Date: May 28, 2025

Key Highlights

Rating & Price Target
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: 1,247p (+12% upside from current price)
- Consensus View: Long-term constructive outlook, but near-term earnings volatility may pressure shares.
Financial Performance
- Revenue (FY25E):
  - TPV growth expected at 15-20% CAGR (2025-2027E).
  - Business revenue projected to reach £263m in 2026, up ~25% YoY (consensus/Jefferies).
- Profit Margins:
  - Adjusted PBT margin: 20% (FY25E), close to mid-term target of 20-21%.
  - Free Cash Flow (FCF): £278m in 2025 (+12% YoY/consensus).
User Growth
- Act active customers: 15.6m (FY25E, up ~21% YoY), with annual active customer (AAFe) metric now included—Jefferies estimates ~27m.
Platform Wins
- New corporate-to-enterprise deal with Raiffeisen Bank International (18m+ users in Eastern Europe).
- Strong momentum in enterprise integrations (e.g., NuBank, Monzo, N26).
Valuation
- Trades at 30x 12m forward P/E, above its 3-year avg (49x).
- 12m fwd EV/EBITDA: 22x vs. avg 26x (consensus).

Growth Catalysts

FX Volatility: Driven by US tariff policies could lift revenue growth in 2025.
APAC Expansion: Post-COVID growth in APAC region (36% YoY revenue growth in some periods).
Cross-Border Integration: Expanding partnerships with banks, fintechs (e.g., Spendesk, Travelex).

Key Risks

Increased Competition: Banks (Monzo, N26) and tech giants entering cross-border payments.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Risks: Currency fluctuations, regulatory changes.
Customer Retention: Monitoring customer churn rates (take rate is declining slightly on platforms like Total).

Next Catalyst

FY25 Earnings Report:
- Date: June 5, 2025 (4:00 AM BST).
- Focus: Balance sheet strength, FCF, geographic revenue split (APAC outlook).

Key Company Initiatives

Sustainability: Ambition of 100% carbon-neutral by 2030, 40% female representation in senior leadership by 2025.
FinTech Disruption: Powers >100 global banks via Wise Platform, competing for consumer wallets.

Summary: [Final Summary]
Jefferies remains constructive on Wise’s long-term potential, driven by cross-border money transfer market dominance and multi-product monetization strategy. However, near-term valuation may face pressure from Fed fears and competition, with key watch points being: