PitchBook-美国私募股权展望_年中更新（英）-2025_12页_615kb

2025 US Private Equity Midyear Update Summary

Introduction

The report analyzes market uncertainties, including trade policies and potential recession, which affect US private equity (PE) in 2025. PE is highlighted for its strengths: ample dry powder ($1 trillion equity, $500 billion debt), long-term horizon, and adaptability, enabling it to navigate macroeconomic challenges.

Key Predictions

• Private Debt Funds: Cumulative capital raised by the top 10 managers will reach a decade high of 33%, driven by large fund closures such as Brookfield/Oaktree's $16 billion distressed debt fund and Ares's $17.8 billion direct lending fund.
• PE-Backed IPOs: Expected to capture 40% of US IPO capital, with current data showing a record 56.1% as of June 2025. If trade tensions ease, IPO activity could surge, but a recession risk poses a threat.
• Maturity Wall: The number of funds entering harvest stages increases as 54.7% of active funds are 6 years or older. Exit activity recovering slowly may not suffice, leading to challenges in winding down assets and avoiding fund life overshoot.

Fundraising Trends

Annual fundraising is expected to decline in 2025 following strong years, with megafunds like those from Thoma Bravo and Blackstone facing slow final closes. Current run rate suggests fundraising could reach $300 billion, the lowest since 2020, due to market uncertainty.

Risks and Uncertainties

• Market Conditions: Trade tariffs and potential recession heighten risks, delaying business investments and exits despite improving public markets.
• Opportunities: If trade policy clarity arrives, PE may benefit from new frontiers, but interim lull in growth is anticipated. Adaptation and strategic investments are key for LPs and GPs.

Overall, the report underscores PE's resilience amid uncertainty, with focus on targeted exits and cautious fundraising.