2025-06-04-Jefferies-维图金融（VIRT）_605规则交易更新_2025年4月_7页_207kb

报告摘要

Summary:
Virtu Financial published its Rule 605 trading metrics for April 2025. Key highlights include:

Executed shares/day: Approximately 730 million (1% YoM increase; 2% YoQ decrease).
Market share: Waned to 22.6% (a -13 bps YoM decline).
Total quoted spread/day: Hit ~$10.3M, the highest level since January 2022 (up 19% YoM).

Valuation & Investment View:

Analysts:

Metric	April 2025 Value	YoM Change	Context
Executed Shares/Da	~730M	+1%	+ YoM; -2% YoQ
Market Share	22.6%	-13 bps	YoM change
Total Spread/Da (YoM)	~$10.3M (high since 2022)	+19%

Regulatory scrutiny, low volatility, and system failure risks.
Peer valuation multiples (~11-13x 2025E EPS) reflect fairness but low volatility remains a key risk.

Founded in 2008, a global market maker providing liquidity across 235 exchanges in 36 countries.
Revenue derives from bid/ask spreads across high volumes.

Executed Shares/day: 730M in April 2025, representing a +1% YoM increase but a -2% YoQ decrease from 743M. This indicates a slight uptick in daily executions but overall contraction compared to the same quarter last year. The upward trend from March's 723M is notable, yet the quarter-over-quarter decline suggests cooling momentum.
Market Share: VIRT saw its market share decline to 22.6% in April, a 13 bps YoM drop. This weakening could indicate increased competition or shifting market dynamics among liquidity providers.

Total Quoted Spread/day: VIRT's spread revenue peaked at $10.3 million in April, the highest level since January 2022 and a significant 19% YoM increase from $8.6M. This robust performance highlights strong execution capability and pricing power, especially in capturing spreads.

Price & Target: Trading at $40.74 with a $47.00 PT (+15% upside). The valuation reflects an ~11-13x 2025E EPS multiple, which is in line with peer valuations and presents a slight premium to historical averages.
Investment View: The "BUY" rating positions VIRT as a medium-term growth play, anticipating 15%+ total returns driven by spread-based revenue and potential market share recovery.

Volatility Deterioration: Prolonged low volatility reduces spread opportunities, posing a revenue risk.
Regulatory Impact: Increased regulatory scrutiny could impact operations and profitability.
System Reliability: Any failure in risk management systems could undermine trading capabilities.

Market Share Trends: While VIRT's share has declined YoM, the spread revenue indicates effective spread capture despite reduced volume, possibly from efficient execution or market conditions favoring higher spreads.
Historical Context: The peak spread revenue in April 2025 signals a significant contribution to earnings potential, likely offsetting challenges in share retention.