2002年-世界发展银行全球_Private_Interhousehold_Transfers____________in_Vietnam_in_the_Early_and_Late_1990s_48页_1mb

Summary of "Private Interhousehold Transfers in Vietnam in the Early and Late 1990s"

Core Content

This working paper by Donald Cox examines the patterns of private interhousehold income transfers in Vietnam using data from the 1992/93 and 1997/98 Vietnam Living Standards Surveys (VLSS). The study explores how these transfers function, their magnitude, and their relationship with economic growth, demographic changes, and life-course events.

Main Findings

• Economic Growth and Transfers: Rapid economic growth in the 1990s did not reduce the importance of private transfers in Vietnam. These transfers remained large and widespread.

• Magnitude of Transfers: Private transfers accounted for 8% of total household income in the 1992/93 survey and increased to 12.2% in the 1997/98 survey when loans were included. Public transfers, by contrast, were much smaller, averaging less than 3% of total income.

• Direction of Transfers: Most private transfers flow from better-off households to poorer ones, with a notable pattern of young-to-old transfers. In the 1992/93 survey, 41% of transfers were from young to old, compared to only 17% in the opposite direction. This is contrary to patterns in developed countries, where transfers often go from old to young.

• Generational Dynamics: Transfers are more common between siblings (29%) and spouses (6%), with a significant portion going to non-relatives (especially for loans, which are 50% non-relative).

• Household Characteristics: Net givers tend to be more economically active, less likely to have unemployed members, and more likely to have educated household heads than net recipients. Recipient households are more likely to be headed by elderly or female individuals.

• Panel Analysis: The paper uses panel data from the two VLSS waves to analyze how private transfer patterns change over time. It finds some hysteresis (long-term effects) in transfer behavior, but many households changed roles between givers and recipients.

• Response to Life Events: Private transfers increase in response to retirement, widowhood, and health expenditures. Additionally, households affected by the Typhoon Linda in 1997/98 received more private transfers, suggesting a role for transfers in risk mitigation.

• Public vs. Private Transfers: While private transfers are more extensive and better targeted to the poor in terms of income distribution, public transfers are less effective in reaching the poorest households.

Key Information

• Data Sources: The study uses the Vietnam Living Standards Surveys (VLSS) from 1992/93 and 1997/98. These surveys are part of the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS).

• Survey Methodology: The 1997/98 survey expanded the scope of data collection, including more detailed questions about loans and public transfers, allowing for a more comprehensive analysis of private transfers.

• Definition of Transfers: Private transfers include both gifts and loans, while public transfers refer to government assistance and NGO aid. The paper focuses on money transfers, with limited consideration of in-kind transfers.

• Sampling and Weighting: The 1997/98 survey included 1200 new households and was not a self-weighted sample. Therefore, survey weights were used in the analysis.

• Policy Implications: The study suggests that private transfers are an important safety net in Vietnam, especially for the elderly. It highlights the potential for crowding out if public transfers expand significantly, but also notes the resilience of private transfer networks in the face of economic growth and natural disasters.

Structure of the Paper

• I. Introduction: Sets the context for the study, outlining the importance of private transfers and the research questions addressed.

• II. Background: Provides an overview of Vietnam's economic growth in the 1990s and the role of informal safety nets in the absence of robust public support systems.

• III. Patterns in Private Transfers:

  • A. Cross-sectional patterns, 1992/93 VLSS: Describes the distribution of private transfers, their size, and the demographic and economic characteristics of givers and recipients.
  • B. Cross-sectional patterns, 1997/98 VLSS: Expands the analysis to include loans and public transfers, showing that the overall role of private transfers remained significant.

Conclusion

Cox concludes that private interhousehold transfers are a crucial mechanism for income redistribution and support in Vietnam, particularly for the elderly. Despite economic growth, these transfers have not diminished in importance. The study also emphasizes the need for further research into the behavioral and policy implications of private transfers, especially in relation to the crowding out hypothesis.