2010年-世界发展银行全球_Albania_-_The_New_Growth_Agenda___A_Country_Economic_Memorandum_77页_1mb

Summary of Albania The New Growth Agenda

Core Content

This document, Albania The New Growth Agenda, is a Country Economic Memorandum prepared by the World Bank, focusing on the macroeconomic performance, challenges, and policy recommendations for Albania's future growth. It outlines a strategic framework for enhancing economic development through education, infrastructure modernization, and improved governance.

Main Points

1. Macroeconomic Performance and Challenges

• Albania has experienced significant economic transformation since 1998, moving into the upper middle income category and achieving a sharp reduction in poverty.
• The average annual growth rate was over 6%, the best in Europe, contributing to a halving of absolute poverty between 2002 and 2008.
• The global financial crisis slowed growth but not as severely as in many other countries, partly offset by increased public spending in 2008 and 2009.
• The country now faces new challenges due to its upper middle income status, including competition from both low-wage and high-income countries.
• Albania's integration into global production systems has increased its dependence on international trade, technology, and capital.
• Future growth will depend more on intra-sectoral productivity than on the current inter-sectoral labor shift.
• Fiscal credibility and macroeconomic stability are critical to attract foreign capital and maintain investor confidence.

2. Education and Skills Development

• Despite having a relatively high level of schooling, the education system has not adequately prepared graduates for the modern labor market.
• A skills gap remains a major constraint on growth, particularly in marketable skills.
• The report emphasizes the need to shift from input-based education policies to outcome-based reforms.
• Key reforms include:
  • Curriculum modernization in basic and secondary education to be more modular and student-centered.
  • Introduction of an ICT curriculum in secondary schools and teacher retraining.
  • Bologna Process reforms in higher education to improve quality and align with international standards.
  • Expansion of short-cycle, sub-degree programs in regional universities.
• Accountability measures are recommended to improve educational outcomes:
  • Publishing Matura results, average university entrance scores, and graduation rates.
  • Conducting employer surveys to assess graduate performance and required skills.
• Incentive schemes are proposed to attract students to high-demand fields like engineering and ICT, including means-tested scholarships and tuition fee adjustments.

3. Modernizing Infrastructure

• The ICT sector is seen as a critical driver of growth, but infrastructure remains inadequate.
• Broadband access is low, with only 2.5% of the population connected in 2009.
• The government has initiated several reforms, including:
  • Establishing AKEP as an independent telecom regulator.
  • Launching the Digital Albania Initiative and creating a Ministry for Innovation and ICT.
  • Privatizing Albtelecom and liberalizing the telecom market.
• Regulatory reforms and investment in infrastructure are necessary to support the expansion of modern ICT services.
• Unbundling local loops and leasing them to alternative networks is proposed to increase competition and improve broadband access.
• Cost-based pricing for leased lines and rebalancing tariffs are needed to reduce the cost of high-speed connections.
• Fiber optic infrastructure should be developed in conjunction with public projects to support future connectivity needs.
• A demand-side push through e-government initiatives, such as e-procurement, is suggested to stimulate ICT adoption.

4. Electricity Supply and Reform

• Hydropower is the main source of electricity in Albania.
• During periods of low rainfall, the electricity supply has been unreliable due to:
  • Below-cost retail tariffs
  • High network losses (both technical and non-technical)
  • Low collection rates
  • Growing demand
• The National Electricity Company (KESH) has struggled with these issues, often having to implement load shedding.
• Reforms since 2008 have improved the situation:
  • Introduction of a new market model
  • Privatization of the retail distribution arm
  • Establishment of an independent regulatory entity
• Next steps include:
  • Strengthening the financial and technical viability of public energy companies.
  • Reducing inter-company arrears.
  • Improving energy losses in the distribution system from 32% to 15%.
  • Expanding generation capacity through small hydro and wind projects.
  • Using thermal generation as a backup in extreme conditions.
• Tariff reform must consider the impact on low-income populations, with a focus on affordable access and subsidies.

Key Information

• Currency: Lek (ALL)
• Exchange Rate (2009): 1 USD = 138 ALL
• Fiscal Year: January 1 – December 31
• Fiscal Rule: Proposed as a policy anchor to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability.
• ICT Challenges:
  • Low broadband penetration (2.5% in 2009)
  • Need for infrastructure expansion and regulatory reform
• Electricity Challenges:
  • Reliance on hydropower with seasonal variability
  • High losses and unreliable supply
• Education Reforms:
  • Curriculum changes and ICT integration
  • Quality assurance and Bologna Process alignment
  • Expansion of higher education with focus on skills development

Conclusion

The report argues that Albania's growth must transition from inter-sectoral labor reallocation to intra-sectoral productivity improvements. It highlights the importance of education reform, ICT infrastructure development, and fiscal credibility in achieving this. The government is encouraged to act as a facilitator rather than a direct investor, ensuring that institutions and policies support the private sector and attract foreign capital. The new growth agenda must address human capital, infrastructure, and governance to sustain economic progress and meet the demands of a more complex and competitive global environment.