世界银行-乌克兰私营部门绿色和有韧性重建的机会：综合报告（英）-2023.10-55页_580kb

Private Sector Opportunities for a Green and Resilient Reconstruction in Ukraine

Key Findings:

Ukraine's economy has been fundamentally altered by Russia's invasion, necessitating a green and resilient reconstruction that goes beyond mere damage repair. A green recovery can accelerate growth while reducing emissions, underpinned by a cascade approach that strategically leverages scarce public resources to mobilize private finance through reforms and risk mitigation.

Constraints and Opportunities:

• Reforms and Competition: Mobilizing private finance requires strategic public resource allocation and extensive reforms to boost competition, lower transaction costs, and attract foreign firms, especially in infrastructure and regulated sectors.
• Two Scenarios Projected:
  • No Major Reforms: Private financing would cover ~70-80% of RDNA2 needs in agriculture, industry, and commerce, but limited in infrastructure (where SOEs dominate).
  • Reform Scenario: Reconstruction needs increase significantly due to enhanced competitiveness, enabling private financing to rise from $172B to $412B by 2033. GDP contributions could reach up to 20% in 2027 under favorable conditions.
• Sector Opportunities:
  • Agriculture: Land and irrigation reforms, trade integration, and post-invasion EU accession drive $16B+ private investment.
  • Transport/Energy: Transition to resilient green infra urges reforms on pricing, auctions, and EU alignment, unlocking ~$145B electricity and $47B transport investment.
  • Social Sectors: Pilot projects in housing, health, education encourage private participation if reforms allow user payments; PPPs can rebuild critical infrastructure.
• Resource Mobilization: Private financing could supply $15-20% of GDP by 2027, with banking and pension reforms vital. Pro-competition reforms in finance and privatization could increase credit-to-GDP ratios significantly.

Recommendations:

1. Advance pro-competition reforms (SOE liberalization, debt recovery, creditor rights).
2. Intensify risk-mitigation through international financing partnerships.
3. Adopt EU regulatory standards to align with Green Deal programs and boost private confidence.

Conclusion: A successful green and resilient recovery depends on implementing reforms, international cooperation, and strategic private finance to attract ~$400 Billion in investments by 2033.