英文_Bernstein_中国汽车_5月零售量同比增长9.9-_电动汽车销售渗透率为51.4-；又一个强劲的月份_但价格战影响投资者情绪_26页_1mb

Summary of Asian Autos Report (June 2025)

Market Performance

China's auto retail volume surged 9.9% year-over-year in May 2025, reaching 1.89 million units, driven by new product launches, promotions, and improved consumer sentiment. This was supported by government subsidies and geopolitical stabilization. Export growth is expected to moderate in 2025.

EV Growth and Penetration

Electric vehicle (EV) penetration reached 51.4% in May 2025, with aggregate EV sales up 23.4% YoY to 973,000 units. BEV and PHEV respectively saw +20.0% and +29.0% growth. BYD leads with a 29.0% market share, followed by Geely and other domestic brands. EVs displaced premium brands in some areas due to electrification lag.

Premium Segment Decline

Premium brands experienced a steep decline, with sales falling -12.7% YoY driven by domestic rivals' delayed EV transitions. Mass-market brands saw +14.9% growth. By Porsche, Mercedes, BMW, and Audi all registered -19.2% to -21% declines.

Inventory and Pricing

Inventory levels remain elevated, with net restocking adding 213,000 units in the past year, particularly in EVs. Auto pricing slightly improved, reducing the negative YoY basis points, but intense competition pressures profitability.

BYD Valuation Update

BYD's valuation was revised down to HK$145 per share on 1211.HK and RMB 390 per share on 002594.CH due to increased domestic competition. However, robust overseas sales offset this pressure, positioning BYD as a key opportunity despite short-term challenges.

Overall Outlook

The outlook is cautiously optimistic, with continued policy support and exports acting as growth drivers. EVs are expected to grow 25% in 2025, raising penetration to 60%, though heightened competition could impact domestic sales. Key opportunities include BYD's global expansion and
選拔 market leaders in the local automotive sector.