2025-06-17-Bernstein-中国汽车_5月零售量同比增长9.9_电动汽车销售渗透率为51.4_；又一个强劲的月份_但价格战影响投资者情绪_26页_1mb

Asian Autos Summary

Core Content

• May 2025 Auto Sales in China:

  • Retail volume reached 1.89 million units, up +9.9% YoY.
  • The SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) for May 2025 was 24.0 million units, higher than 23.8 million units in April 2025 and the full year forecast of ~22 million units.
  • The strong performance was driven by new product launches, aggressive promotions, extended subsidies, and improved consumer sentiment due to better geopolitical news.

• EV Sales Penetration:

  • Overall EV (BEV & PHEV) penetration reached 51.4% in May 2025.
  • BEV penetration was 30.9%, while PHEV was 20.5%.
  • EV sales (BEV & PHEV) grew +23.4% YoY, totaling 973,000 units.
    • BEV sales rose +20% YoY.
    • PHEV sales increased +29% YoY.

• Top EV Brands in May 2025:

  • BYD Group (BYD, Denza, Fangchengbao, Yangwang): 282,000 units, 29.0% share.
  • Geely (Galaxy, Geometry, Zeekr, Lynk&Co): 114,000 units, 11.8% share.
  • Li Auto: 45,000 units, 4.6% share.
  • Tesla: 39,000 units, 4.0% share.
  • AITO: 36,000 units, 3.7% share.
  • Leapmotor: 32,000 units, 3.3% share.
  • Xiaomi: 29,000 units, 3.2% share.
  • XPeng: 27,000 units, 2.8% share.
  • NIO (ONVO, Firefly): 25,000 units, 2.6% share.

• Inventory Levels and Investor Sentiment:

  • Cumulative EV channel inventory over the last twelve months (LTM) reached 686,000 units in May, up from 592,000 units in April.
  • Elevated inventory levels and heightened price competition are affecting investor sentiment.

• Investment Implications:

  • The sector is viewed with cautious optimism.
  • Government subsidies and trade-in policies have boosted auto sales in the first half of 2025.
  • Exports are expected to continue driving growth, though at a moderate pace.
  • Wholesale volumes are forecast to grow 1% in 2025, reaching ~27.5 million units, with ~22 million units for the domestic market and ~5.5 million units for exports.
  • EV long-term growth remains strong, with a forecast of ~25% growth in 2025 and EV penetration reaching 60%.

• EV Market Outlook:

  • PHEV growth is expected to outpace the overall market.
  • Competition within the domestic market remains intense, putting pressure on pricing and profitability.
  • Overseas markets are seen as strategic growth opportunities.

Key Investment Ratings and Price Targets

Investment Ratings by Segment

• EV Brands:

  • BYD, Xiaomi, and Li Auto: Outperform
  • XPeng and NIO: Market-Perform

• Traditional Chinese OEMs:

  • Geely: Outperform
  • Great Wall, GAC, and SAIC: Market-Perform

Valuation Comps

Conclusion

The Chinese auto market showed resilient demand in May 2025, with retail volume up +9.9% YoY and EV sales penetration reaching 51.4%. Despite this, premium brand sales declined by -12.7% YoY, while mass market brands saw a +14.9% YoY increase. The decline in premium brands is attributed to slow electrification progress, while EVs continue to dominate due to government support, promotions, and consumer sentiment improvements.

Investor sentiment is dampened by high inventory levels and intense price competition. The report suggests that subsidy programs may temporarily impact June sales, but are expected to be reinstated.

For investment ratings, BYD, Xiaomi, and Li Auto are rated Outperform, while XPeng and NIO are rated Market-Perform. Geely is also rated Outperform, and Great Wall, GAC, and SAIC are Market-Perform.

The valuation comps show varying P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios across different segments, with BYD and Xiaomi being among the more highly valued. The report highlights different growth expectations for EVs and traditional OEMs, with EVs expected to grow faster in the coming year.