2009年-ECB欧洲央行_Methodological_changes_in_the_compilation_of_the_euro_area_balance_of_payments_and_international_investment_position_3页_134kb

Box 11: Methodological Changes in the Compilation of the Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position

Core Content

The euro area balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) have undergone significant methodological changes since 2004 to address a growing statistical discrepancy between the current and capital accounts, as well as the financial account. This discrepancy, reflected in the "net errors and omissions" component, was primarily due to differences in data collection methods and reporting practices.

The key changes were introduced to improve the accuracy of financial account data, particularly in the areas of portfolio investment, intra-euro area loans, and non-MFIs' deposits held abroad. These changes were implemented consistently across all compiled frequencies starting from the press release on 2 November 2009.

Main Points

• Growing Statistical Discrepancy: Since 2004, the euro area BOP has shown an increasing negative "net errors and omissions" component, indicating a gap between the recorded transactions in the current and capital accounts and the financial account.

• Methodological Improvements: The ECB and national central banks initiated methodological reforms to reduce this discrepancy. The new approach incorporated additional data sources and corrected inconsistencies in the recording of transactions.

• Impact of Revisions: The implementation of the new methodology resulted in a substantial adjustment to the financial account, particularly in the period from the first quarter of 2004 to the second quarter of 2009. This led to a reduction in the negative net errors and omissions from €555 billion (6.1% of GDP) to €30 billion (0.3% of GDP).

• Key Adjustments:

  • Portfolio Investment Liabilities: Euro area residents' holdings of equity securities issued in Luxembourg and Ireland were previously underestimated, and this was corrected using data from the IMF's Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey.
  • Intra-Euro Area Loans: The asymmetrical recording of loans between non-monetary financial institutions (non-MFIs) was addressed by reclassifying some transactions to counterparts outside the euro area.
  • Deposits Held Abroad: Underestimation of non-MFIs' deposits held abroad was corrected, with evidence suggesting that many of these deposits were actually held by euro area households.

• Effect on IIP and Current Account: The methodological changes had a considerable impact on the IIP, reducing the euro area's net liability position from 19.5% to 17.7% of GDP. The current account deficit was also revised upwards by 0.4% of GDP, although this was largely due to adjustments in the income account rather than the new methodology itself.

Key Information

• Data Sources: The changes incorporated data from the IMF's Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey and BIS banking statistics to improve accuracy.

• Scope of Changes: The methodology was applied to three financial account items: portfolio investment, intra-euro area loans, and non-MFIs' deposits held abroad.

• Timing of Implementation: The new methodology was implemented consistently for all compiled frequencies starting from the press release on 2 November 2009.

• Magnitude of Impact: The new methodology accounted for a decrease in net errors and omissions equal to 4.5% of GDP, with most of the reduction (€430 billion) attributed to it.

• Further Information: Detailed information on the BOP and IIP can be found on the ECB's website: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/external/balance/html/index.en.html

Summary

The methodological changes introduced to the euro area BOP and IIP aimed to reduce the statistical discrepancy and improve the accuracy of financial account data. These changes had a significant impact on the level of the BOP and IIP, particularly in the financial account, where they reduced the negative net errors and omissions and adjusted the euro area's net liability position. While the changes had a limited effect on the overall trends of the time series, they improved the alignment between the financial account and the non-financial side of the economy, especially in relation to trade in goods and services. The new methodology was implemented consistently from 2009 onwards and continues to be used for the compilation of BOP and IIP data.