2011年-ECB欧洲央行_Euro_area_balance_of_payments_and_international_investment_position_statistics_-_2010_quality_report_50页_2mb

Summary of EURO AREA BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION STATISTICS - MARCH 2011

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the quality and methodology of the euro area balance of payments (b.o.p.) and international investment position (i.i.p.) statistics for March 2011. It is part of the ECB's annual quality report, mandated by Article 6 of Guideline ECB/2004/15, and follows the statistical principles outlined in the "Public commitment on European Statistics by the ESCB" from 2007, with further amendments in 2009.

The report outlines the institutional framework, statistical processes, and the quality of the output for the euro area b.o.p. and i.i.p. statistics. It also highlights the importance of methodological soundness, cost-effectiveness, and the reliability of the data.

Main Points

Institutional Environment

• The ECB and Eurostat are responsible for the collection and compilation of b.o.p. and i.i.p. statistics, with the legal framework derived from the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union and the ESCB Statute.
• The ECB is legally required to collect statistical information from the competent national authorities or directly from economic agents.
• The Memorandum of Understanding between the ECB and Eurostat outlines the shared responsibilities for b.o.p./i.i.p. statistics.
• The ECB's statistical tasks are guided by the principles of independence, transparency, and good governance.

Statistical Processes

• Methodological Soundness:

  • The methodologies for compiling b.o.p. and i.i.p. statistics are detailed in the ECB's "B.o.p. Book."
  • The ECB and Eurostat are working together to implement the sixth edition of the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) by 2014.
  • The new BPM6 introduces changes such as an extended breakdown by institutional sectors, indirect measurement of financial services, and the inclusion of insurance and pension schemes.
  • The ECB's Centralised Securities Database (CSDB) provides harmonised data for classifying securities by sector, residence, type of instrument, maturity, and currency of issue.

• Cost-Effectiveness and Reporting Burden:

  • Since 2003, the ECB and Eurostat have aligned their release and revision calendars, increasing the comparability of statistics and reducing the reporting burden on Member States.
  • The implementation of CSDB and security-by-security data collection in March 2009 provides flexibility in data compilation without increasing the burden on respondents.

Output Quality

• Relevance:

  • The ECB ensures that its statistics meet the needs of users, which are reviewed annually and through mid-year assessments.
  • The relevance of the statistical output is continuously evaluated in terms of its merits and costs.

• Accuracy and Reliability (Stability):

  • The ECB performs quality assurance procedures on the contributions received from all Member States and its own accounting ledgers.
  • Revisions are made to improve data quality and accuracy, especially when initial estimates are based on incomplete or incorrect information.
  • The ECB publishes its revision practices, which follow a predetermined schedule: quarterly data are revised with the publication of the following quarter, and annually for the i.i.p.

• Consistency and Comparability:

  • The consistency between b.o.p. and monetary statistics has improved, particularly in the recording of short-selling transactions.
  • The bias component of the discrepancy between these statistics has decreased.
  • The euro area accounts and b.o.p./i.i.p. statistics differ due to methodological and compilation practices, such as the non-recording of insurance technical reserves in b.o.p./i.i.p. data.

• Stability Indicators:

  • The directional reliability of the estimates improved for net income and portfolio investment assets, while direct investment assets showed a decline.
  • The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the current account income items shows a steady improvement in stability, indicating more accurate and consistent data.
  • The root mean square relative error (RMSRE) is used to assess the bias in the estimates of net services and balancing items, showing a reduction in the overall bias.

Key Information

• The euro area b.o.p. and i.i.p. statistics are compiled using data from national central banks and are subject to revisions due to methodological changes and new data collection practices.
• In 2010, Member States implemented new requirements for portfolio investment data, including sectoral breakdowns, which improved the compilation of the euro area quarterly accounts.
• The implementation of BPM6 is expected to further enhance the accuracy and consistency of the statistics.
• The ECB and Eurostat have made efforts to ensure the data is reliable, timely, and accessible.
• The size of net errors and omissions has remained stable since 2009, with the statistical discrepancy in the b.o.p. kept below 0.4% of euro area GDP.
• The revisions to the net i.i.p. at end-2008 and end-2009 increased the net liability position, with significant changes in the composition of investment flows.
• The revisions in the euro area b.o.p. and i.i.p. are primarily due to methodological changes and improved data collection practices, such as those in Belgium and the Netherlands.

Annexes and References

• The report includes quantitative indicators for measuring reliability and consistency.
• The analysis of i.i.p. revisions is based on different vintages of the estimates for each year.
• The ECB's website provides methodological notes and data on the international role of the euro, as well as detailed information on exports and imports.
• The report references the IMF's SDDS and the progress towards BPM6 implementation.