20140820-Maybank_KERPL-Go_Africa_12页_1004kb
报告摘要
Minor International PCL (MINT TB) Summary
Core Content
Minor International PCL (MINT TB) is a company with a current share price of THB32.75 and a target price of THB40.00, representing a 22% increase. The company's market capitalization is USD4.1B, and the average daily trading volume is USD10M. The company is based in Thailand and operates in the hotel sector. The analyst recommendation is BUY, and it remains the top pick due to its positive outlook and recent acquisitions.
Key Highlights
- Recent Acquisition: MINT has acquired 10 properties across 6 African countries for a total of THB5.3b, contributing to its expansion strategy in Africa. These properties include:
- Radisson Blu Hotel (154 rooms) and a residential tower (187 rooms) in Mozambique
- 8 properties from Sun International in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zambia
- Total investment: THB5,261m (USD165m), with over 1,700 rooms
- Contribution to Profit: The new properties are expected to contribute 2.5% to net profit and 4.3% to revenue in FY15F
- Recovery Outlook: The company expects its occupancy rate to rebound in 3Q14 and improve further in 4Q14 onwards. RevPAR is projected to grow by 12% in 3Q14 and 18% in 4Q14
- Strategic Moves: MINT has formed a 50/50 joint venture with BreadTalk Group in Thailand to expand its food retail presence, which is expected to benefit from its diversified restaurant strategy
- Earnings Upgrade: Due to the acquisitions, MINT's FY15-16 earnings have been upgraded by 3%, with the core net profit growing from 5,565 to 5,747 in FY15 and from 6,377 to 6,561 in FY16
- Valuation: The target price of THB40 implies a 27.8x PER, 4.8x P/BV, and 1.0x PEG for FY15F. MINT is currently trading at a 5% discount compared to regional peers
Main Financials
| FYE Dec (THB m) | FY12A | FY13A | FY14E | FY15E | FY16E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 31,310.2 | 34,668.7 | 39,109.9 | 44,874.7 | 49,607.5 |
| EBITDA | 6,562.0 | 7,590.0 | 8,503.8 | 10,127.3 | 11,382.9 |
| Core Net Profit | 3,243.3 | 4,101.4 | 4,457.2 | 5,747.2 | 6,561.1 |
| Core FDEPS (THB) | 0.92 | 1.04 | 1.14 | 1.46 | 1.67 |
| Core FD P/E (x) | 35.8 | 31.3 | 28.8 | 22.4 | 19.6 |
| P/BV (x) | 6.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Net Dividend Yield (%) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| ROAE (%) | 20.2 | 19.1 | 16.6 | 18.6 | 18.5 |
| ROAA (%) | 6.9 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 14.3 | 13.8 | 17.7 | 14.6 | 12.7 |
| Net Debt/Equity (%) | 114.5 | 79.0 | 61.7 | 45.3 | 31.7 |
Earnings Forecast
| Metric | 2014F | 2015F | 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Profit (THBm) | 4,457.2 | 5,747.2 | 6,561.1 |
| Core Net Profit (THBm) | 4,457.2 | 5,747.2 | 6,561.1 |
| Core FDEPS (THB) | 1.14 | 1.46 | 1.67 |
| Core FDEPS Growth (%) | 8.7 | 28.9 | 14.2 |
| Net DPS (THB) | 0.33 | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| Core FD P/E (x) | 28.8 | 22.4 | 19.6 |
| P/BV (x) | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Net Dividend Yield (%) | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| ROAE (%) | 16.6 | 18.6 | 18.5 |
| ROAA (%) | 7.2 | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 17.7 | 14.6 | 12.7 |
| Net Debt/Equity (%) | 61.7 | 45.3 | 31.7 |
Analyst Recommendations
- Market Consensus: 67% of analysts recommend BUY, with an average target price of THB35.6
- Maybank: Maintains BUY with a target price of THB40, indicating a 22% upside
- Peer Comparison:
- Minor International: Buy, THB40.00, 22% upside
- Central Plaza Hotel: Hold, THB40.00, 6% upside
- Erawan Group: Buy, THB6.00, 29% upside
Key Takeaways
- MINT has made strategic acquisitions in Africa to expand its hotel portfolio, contributing to both revenue and net profit
- The hotel business is expected to recover in 2H14 with improved occupancy rates and RevPAR growth
- The restaurant business continues to grow, supported by improved consumer confidence in Thailand and potential profitability in China
- MINT's valuation is based on a DCF model with a 9% WACC and 3% terminal growth, leading to a fair value of THB40
- The company's stock is currently trading at a 5% discount compared to regional peers, supporting the BUY recommendation
Conclusion
MINT is well-positioned for growth due to its strategic acquisitions in Africa, recovery in the hotel sector, and continued expansion in the restaurant business. The company's financial metrics show a positive trend, with improved profitability and a strong balance sheet. Analysts remain bullish on MINT, citing its solid diversification and potential for long-term growth. The target price of THB40 reflects a compelling valuation, making it a top pick in the industry.
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