2015年-德勤全球_2018_Global_aerospace_and_defense_industry_outlook_28页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of the 2018 Global Aerospace and Defense Industry Outlook

Core Content

The 2018 Global Aerospace and Defense (A&D) industry outlook forecasts a stronger year of growth following a subdued 2017. Deloitte predicts a 4.1% revenue growth for the global A&D industry in 2018, driven by factors such as recovery in global GDP, stable commodity prices, and increased passenger travel demand, especially in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Latin America regions. The commercial aircraft sector is expected to grow by 4.8%, while the defense sector is projected to see 3.6% growth.

Main Points

Commercial Aircraft Sector Outlook

Revenue Growth: The commercial aircraft sector is forecasted to grow by 4.8% in 2018, with production levels expected to increase significantly.
Production Increase: It is estimated that nearly 100 more aircraft will be produced in 2018 compared to 2017, with a focus on narrow-body aircraft.
Major Manufacturers: Airbus and Boeing are increasing their production rates, with Airbus planning to scale up the A320neo and Boeing increasing 737 production to 52 per month in 2018.
Demand Trends: Passenger travel demand has grown at a CAGR of 5.1% over the last decade, with the Asia-Pacific region being a key driver. By 2030, the middle class in the region is expected to account for 65% of the population.
Backlog: As of the end of 2017, the commercial aircraft backlog was at an all-time high of 14,215 units, representing 9.5 years of current production.
Future Demand: Over the next 20 years, the global demand for new commercial aircraft is estimated at 36,780 units, excluding regional jets.
Challenges: The sector faces challenges such as overcapacity, deferred upgrades, and stabilizing oil prices affecting the demand for widebody aircraft. Additionally, new entrants like China and Russia will need to overcome obstacles such as order procurement, cost overruns, and regulatory certifications.

Defense Sector Outlook

Revenue Growth: The defense sector is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2018, with global defense spending projected to reach $2 trillion by 2022 at a CAGR of 3.0%.
Security Threats: Rising global tensions and evolving threats such as cyber-attacks, hybrid warfare, and nuclear ambitions are driving defense spending.
Key Countries: The US remains the largest defense spender, while countries like India, China, and Russia have also seen significant increases in their defense budgets.
M&A Activity: M&A is expected to increase in the A&D industry in 2018, with US defense sector likely to see more activity due to increased budgets. European defense companies may opt for joint ventures instead of large M&A deals.
Strategic Investments: The US DoD budget for FY2019 is expected to be $79 billion higher than FY2018, leading to increased revenue and operating income for top US defense companies.

Key Regional Perspectives

Country/Region	A&D Industry Trends and Outlook
India	- Likely to be the third largest aviation market by 2025<br>- Forecast to require 2,100 new aircraft worth $290 billion over the next two decades<br>- 2017-18 defense budget reached $57.4 billion, third largest globally<br>- Attracted foreign investment through policy changes such as the Strategic Partnership Model
China	- 2017 defense budget was $192.5 billion, second largest globally<br>- Targeted 8.1% growth in 2018 defense budget<br>- Commercial aviation expected to be the largest by passengers by 2024<br>- COMAC's C919 aircraft program is nearing commercial launch with 800+ orders
Japan	- Defense budget increased to $43.5 billion in 2017<br>- Military expenditure as a % of GDP remains low (slightly below 1.0%)<br>- Expected to increase defense spending due to security concerns in the South China Sea<br>- Commercial aviation growth is 2.7% over the next 20 years
Middle East	- Passenger traffic growth slowed in 2017 due to US travel bans and electronic device restrictions<br>- Over the next 20 years, 5.6% growth in passenger traffic is forecasted, requiring 3,350 additional aircraft<br>- Defense spending for UAE and Saudi Arabia declined, but Israel saw a 5.6% increase<br>- Oil price stability may impact future defense spending in the region

Major Industry Trends

Technological Innovation: A&D companies are expected to invest in new and advanced technologies to enhance productivity and efficiency.
Supply Chain and Program Management: Strengthening supply chains and effective program management are key challenges for the industry.
M&A and Strategic Partnerships: OEMs are under pressure to reduce costs and boost production, leading to increased M&A activity and strategic partnerships in the defense sector.
Global Demand for Defense Products: Increasing demand is observed in Middle East, Eastern Europe, North Korea, and the East and South China Seas.

Shareholder Return Performance

Global A&D Industry: Shareholder returns are expected to be positive in 2018, with operating profits projected to increase significantly.
US A&D Industry: Revenue is forecasted to grow by 3.7%, with operating profits up by 9.9%.
European A&D Industry: Revenue is expected to rise by 4.9%, with operating earnings increasing by 22.3%.

2017 Financial Performance

The A&D industry experienced 2.1% revenue growth in 2017, aligning with Deloitte's forecast.
Operating profits in the commercial aircraft sector are expected to rise by 18.5%, while the defense sector is projected to see 10.2% growth in operating profits.

Conclusion

The global aerospace and defense industry is on a solid profitable growth path in 2018, with both commercial aircraft and defense sectors expected to see significant revenue and profit growth. The Asia-Pacific region is a key driver of demand, with India, China, and Japan leading in both sectors. M&A activity and strategic partnerships are expected to be on the rise, especially in the US defense sector. Technological innovation and efficient supply chain management are critical for sustaining this growth.