2016年铜行业调查报告（英文版）_74页_6mb

GFMS COPPER SURVEY 2016 Summary

Core Content

The GFMS Copper Survey 2016 provides an in-depth analysis of the global copper market, covering production, consumption, price trends, and macroeconomic influences up to 2018. It outlines the current state of the market, key industry developments, and potential future scenarios based on different macroeconomic conditions.

Main Points

1. Copper Price Trends

• Copper prices rebounded from a near-seven-year low of $4,318/tonne in mid-January 2016.
• The LME 3-month price is expected to average $4,850/tonne in 2016, with a further increase to $5,100/tonne in 2017 and $5,738/tonne in 2018.
• The price is projected to remain below $5,000/tonne in real terms (2015 prices) in 2016.
• A key technical indicator is the inverted head and shoulders pattern, suggesting potential for a significant price move if certain levels are breached.

2. Market Surplus/Deficit

• In 2016, the global copper market is expected to remain in surplus, with an estimated surplus of 363,000 tonnes.
• The surplus is forecasted to decline to less than 60,000 tonnes by 2018, indicating a potential shift toward a deficit market.
• Total stocks are expected to reach 6.6 weeks' consumption by the end of the forecast horizon.

3. Production and Costs

• Mine production is expected to grow at a slower pace than in the recent past, as miners continue to deliver on investments made during the boom years.
• Marginal cash costs are around $4,800/tonne, with total costs (including depreciation) just above $5,900/tonne.
• Producers have already initiated production cutbacks and asset sales, especially for high-cost operations.

4. Consumption by Region

• China: Copper consumption growth is expected to slow to an annual average of 3.2% in 2016, down from 5.2% in 2015.
• EU-28: Consumption increased by 2.4% in 2016, with Germany as the main driver.
• United States: Copper demand growth is projected to be modest at 1.1%, with some end-use sectors (like oil and mining) showing falling demand.
• India: Consumption rose by 5%, but growth is expected to moderate.
• Japan, Brazil, Russia: Copper consumption fell significantly in these regions.

5. Key Industry Developments

• Mine Closures and Suspensions: Several high-cost mines have been suspended or closed, including Katanga, Mopani, McCreedy West, and Michilla.
• Asset Sales: Anglo American sold Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos, while Glencore has assets up for sale.
• Cross-subsidies: Companies like Codelco use cross-subsidies to preserve high-cost operations.

6. Macroeconomic Scenarios

• Base Case: Global GDP growth is expected to average 2.7% over the next three years, with a surplus of 60,000 tonnes by 2018.
• Scenario B (High Growth): A faster growth environment with GDP rising to 4.5% in 2018, leading to a deficit of 220,000 tonnes.
• Scenario C (Lower Growth): A weaker economic environment with GDP growth at 1.8% in 2018, resulting in a surplus of 303,000 tonnes.

7. Macroeconomic Threats

• Global Trade Slowdown: Export values have been declining since 2012, with a significant drop in 2015.
• U.S. Recession Risk: The ISM index has been below 50 for five consecutive months, raising the probability of a U.S. recession to over 65%.
• Yuan Devaluation: Concerns about China's economic slowdown and the devaluation of the yuan are key macroeconomic risks.

Key Information

• Units: All figures are in metric tonnes unless otherwise stated.
• Price Reference: US dollar prices and their equivalents refer to LME 3-month prices.
• Terminology:
  • "Building Construction" includes Building Wire, Plumbing & Heating, Air Conditioning & Commercial Refrigeration, Builders Hardware, and Architectural.
  • "Electrical & Electronic Products" includes Power Utilities, Telecommunications, Business Electronics, Lighting & Wiring Devices.
  • "Transportation Equipment" includes Automobile, Truck & Bus, Railroad, Marine, Aircraft & Aerospace.
  • "Consumer & General Products" includes Appliances, Cord Sets, Military & Commercial Ordnance, Consumer.
  • "Industrial Machinery & Equipment" includes Electronics, Fasteners & Closures, Coinage, Utensils & Cutlery, Miscellaneous, In-Plant Equipment, Industrial Valves & Fittings, Non-Electrical Instruments, Off-Road Vehicles, Heat Exchangers.
• Surplus/Deficit: The global copper market is expected to remain in surplus, though the rate of surplus is expected to decline.
• Future Outlook: The current low price environment is sowing the seeds for the next boom, as projects are delayed or abandoned.

Summary

The GFMS Copper Survey 2016 highlights the ongoing challenges in the global copper market, with prices recovering from a significant low but still facing downward pressure due to a surplus and weak demand growth. The survey outlines three macroeconomic scenarios for the future of the copper market, each with different implications for prices, production, and consumption. The U.S. recession risk and global trade slowdown are identified as key threats to the market. The report also discusses the impact of mine closures and asset sales, as well as the changing intensity of copper use in developing economies, which may lead to a prolonged surplus and potential market deficits in the future.